Double Star New Materials (002585): the layout of high-end materials is gradually expanding new production capacity and new technologies to meet the expectations of the future.

中信建投證券 · Mar 30, 2022 14:17 · Researches

事件

公司发布2021 年年报，21 年实现营收59.3 亿，同比增长17.2%，归母净利润13.9 亿元，同比增长92.1%；实现扣非净利润12.4亿元，同比增长97.9%。对应21 年Q4 单季实现归母净利4.1 亿元，同比增长52.6%，环比增长11.4%。

简评

光学膜产品持续高端化，产能扩增助推全年业绩腾飞。公司作为BOPET 龙头，在准确把握产品技术发展趋势下，近年来专注前瞻技术产品的开发，21 年公司2 亿平米光学膜项目建设一阶段30万吨高端薄膜的6 条产线已经全面投运，并且已经开始逐步转固，BOPET 总产能达到86 万吨，同比增长54%，22 年上半年另有二阶段的20 万吨功能膜产能交付。2021 年，公司BOPET 薄膜总产量52.4 万吨，同比+16%，销量51 万吨，同比+3%；高端产品产销稳步提升，光学、新能源、信息、热收缩四大板块销量分别达14.3 万吨、11.1 万吨、2.2 万吨、2.1 万吨，同比分别+19%、+49%、+60%、+71%；普膜销量21.6 万吨，同比-21.2%，占比逐渐下降。

光学材料板块、新能源材料板块、可变信息材料板块、热缩材料板块分别实现销售收入21.46 亿、12.48 亿、3.85 亿、3.06 亿，占比分别增至36.19%、21.04%、6.50%、5.16%，同比分别增长33.68%、76.50%、62.21%、49.10%；毛利率分别为35.07%、34.93%、45.41%、30.18%，同比分别增长11.63%、10.69%、4.62%、8.93%，综合毛利率稳步提升，达到32.86%，同比增长10.31pct，净利率为23.36%，同比增长9.12pct。公司全年实现总营收59.3 亿，同比增长17.2%，归母净利达13.86 亿，同比增长97.9%；其中Q1、Q2、Q3、Q4 分别实现归母净利2.76、3.28、3.70、4.13 亿元，Q4 环比增长11.6%。报告期内，公司实现扣非净利12.4 亿，同比增长97.9%，其中Q4 扣非净利为3.2 亿，环比略有下降4.5%，主要原因一是21 年8 月份对251 名员工进行了股权激励，三季度末授权，产生的费用3700 万于Q4 扣除；二是年度核算中信用减值按照会计准则有3000 万，影响了四季度的净利，去除以上影响，修正后Q4 扣非净利接近3.8 亿，环比增长12%以上。此外，报告期内公司经营净现金流净额10.4 亿，同比-12%，Q4 单季为-3.17 亿，主要系全年现金回款48.5 亿中，票据收款约占16亿，不体现在经营性现金流入中，扣除该部分影响后，公司 2021 年修正后经营性净现金流为18.9 亿，同比+57%。根据公司年度经营计划，2022 年公司计划营收、净利同比增长均在30%以上，我们认为该增长率相对偏保守；2022 年，随着后续公司进一步产品升级及产能投放，公司预计将实现75~80 万吨销量，相比于21 年增量约50%，成长动能充足，业绩兑现可期。

拓展新材料布局，业务结构持续优化。2021 年，公司研发费用为2.67 亿，同比增长69.7%，研发费用占营业收入比例为4.50%，同比增长1.39pct；研发人员353 人，同比增长122.01%；21 年年内公司落实自主创新15 项新产品实现量产；新增专利申请50 件，其中发明专利30 件；授权专利36 件，其中发明专利15件；自主立项创新成果课题12 项。公司的研发技术优势推进新材料产品发展，21 年公司新材料业务的毛利贡献占比已经超过75%。在大力开展技术研发、投放新产能的基础上，公司通过多年的技术积累和提升，“十年膜一剑”，完成了从主营功能性包装材料企业向光学、光伏、信息等膜材创新型高端企业逐渐蜕变，借助五大业务板块形成膜、片纵向一体化布局，市场竞争力不断提升。

标杆采购优化成本，拓展网络平台实现销售侧重。公司主要原材料PTA 与油价关联度较高，2021 年成本端PTA、MEG 均价分别为4723、5252 元/吨，同比分别上涨28.0%、36.8%。截至22 年3 月27 日，成本端PTA 均价为5589 元/吨，较年初+26%，MEG 均价为5171 元/吨，较年初+4.7%。原料价格上涨压力下，公司通过标杆采购在一定程度上控制原料成本，同时借助较高的原料库存规模，在油价上涨、原材料现价抬升的背景下，实际原料成本相对较低；并且公司22 年初已经向下游客户适当提价10%-15%，叠加成本端的控制将有效保证公司盈利水平。此外，2021 年公司海外收入略有下滑，全年实现外贸出口销售额8.2 亿，同比-13.6%，主要原因系21年海运集装箱紧张、海运运费高涨，并且疫情严重导致订仓困难。但21 年国内整体需求比国外需求更紧迫，价格更高，因此未对公司业绩造成过大影响；同时，公司采取销售侧重的措施，借助网络平台积极拓宽线上渠道，持续加强与客户的交流沟通，电商平台销售收入同比增长60%。2022 年一季度，公司对产品结构进行了调整，继续满足市场需求，根据前12 周的统计，Q1 对外出口同比增长60%，随着后续海外经济的恢复，以及海运费下降，公司今年海外销售有望取得快速恢复，进一步保障公司的盈利能力。

盈利预测与估值：考虑22、23 年高端功能膜新增产能逐步投放，预计公司2022 年、2023 年和2024 年归母净利分别为19.5 亿元、26.7 亿元和33.8 亿元，EPS 分别为1.7 元、2.3 元和2.9 元，PE 分别为11.7X、8.6X、6.8X，目标价38.8 元/股，成长性显著，维持“买入”评级。

风险分析：项目投产不及预期，下游需求不及预期。

Event

The company released its 2021 annual report, with revenue of 5.93 billion yuan in 21 years, an increase of 17.2% over the same period last year, a net profit of 1.39 billion yuan, an increase of 92.1% over the same period last year, and a deduction of 1.24 billion yuan in non-net profit, an increase of 97.9% over the same period last year. Corresponding to Q4 in 21 years, the net profit of returning to the mother in a single quarter was 410 million yuan, an increase of 52.6% over the same period last year and 11.4% over the same period last year.

Brief comment

Optical film products continue to be high-end, and production capacity expansion contributes to the take-off of annual performance. As the leader of BOPET, under the accurate grasp of the development trend of product technology, the company has focused on the development of forward-looking technology products in recent years. Six production lines of 300000 tons of high-end films in the first phase of the construction of the company's 200 million square meters optical film project in 21 years have been fully put into operation, and the total production capacity of BOPET has reached 860000 tons, an increase of 54% compared with the same period last year. In the first half of 22 years, another two-stage functional film capacity of 200000 tons was delivered. In 2021, the company's total BOPET film production was 524000 tons, year-on-year + 16%, sales volume 510000 tons, year-on-year + 3%; production and sales of high-end products increased steadily, with sales of optics, new energy, information and heat shrinkage reaching 143000 tons, 111000 tons, 22000 tons and 21000 tons respectively, with year-on-year sales of + 19%, + 49%, + 60% and + 71% respectively; and general film sales of 216000 tons,-21.2% year-on-year, accounting for a gradual decline.

Optical materials, new energy materials, variable information materials and heat-shrinkable materials realized sales revenue of 2.146 billion, 1.248 billion, 385 million and 306 million respectively, accounting for 36.19%, 21.04%, 6.50% and 5.16% respectively, up 33.68%, 76.50%, 62.21% and 49.10% respectively over the same period last year. The gross profit margin was 35.07%, 34.93%, 45.41% and 30.18% respectively, up 11.63%, 10.69%, 4.62% and 8.93% respectively over the same period last year. The comprehensive gross profit margin increased steadily to 32.86%, an increase of 10.31pct over the same period last year, and a net profit rate of 23.36%, an increase of 9.12pct over the same period last year. The total revenue of the company for the whole year was 5.93 billion, an increase of 17.2% over the same period last year, and the net profit returned to home reached 1.386 billion, an increase of 97.9% over the same period last year. Among them, Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 realized net profit of 2.76,3.28,3.70 and 413 million yuan respectively, and Q4 increased by 11.6% over the previous year. During the reporting period, the company deducted 1.24 billion of its non-net profit, an increase of 97.9% over the same period last year, of which Q4 deducted non-net profit of 320 million, a slight decrease of 4.5% from the previous month. The main reason is that equity incentives were given to 251 employees in August 21, and authorization was granted at the end of the third quarter. 37 million of the fees incurred are deducted from Q4. Second, the annual credit impairment in accordance with accounting standards is 30 million, affecting the net profit of the fourth quarter, excluding the above impact, the revised Q4 deduction non-net profit is close to 380 million, an increase of more than 12% compared with the previous quarter. In addition, the net operating cash flow of the company during the reporting period was 1.04 billion, compared with-12% of the same period last year. The net operating cash flow of Q4 was-317 million, which was mainly due to the annual cash rebate of 4.85 billion, and the receipt of bills accounted for about 1.6 billion, which was not reflected in the operating cash inflow. After deducting this part of the impact, the revised net operating cash flow of the company in 2021 was 1.89 billion, which was + 57% of the same period last year. According to the company's annual business plan, the company's planned revenue and net profit will grow by more than 30% in 2022 compared with the same period last year, which we think is relatively conservative. In 2022, with further product upgrades and production capacity investment, the company is expected to achieve 75.8 million tons of sales. Compared with the 21-year increase of about 50%, the growth momentum is sufficient, and the performance can be realized.

Expand the layout of new materials, continue to optimize the business structure. In 2021, the company's R & D expenses were 267 million, an increase of 69.7% over the same period last year, and R & D expenses accounted for 4.50% of business income, an increase of 1.39pct over the same period last year. There were 353 R & D personnel, an increase of 122.01% over the same period last year, and the company implemented 15 new products of independent innovation to achieve mass production. 50 new patent applications were added, including 30 invention patents and 36 authorized patents, including 15 invention patents. There are 12 independent projects for innovative achievements. The company's R & D technology advantages promote the development of new materials products, and the gross profit contribution of the company's new materials business in the past 21 years has exceeded 75%. On the basis of vigorously carrying out technological research and development and putting in new production capacity, the company has gradually transformed from a main functional packaging material enterprise to an innovative high-end enterprise of optics, photovoltaic, information and other membrane materials through years of technology accumulation and upgrading, with the help of five major business plates to form a vertical integrated layout of films and films, and the market competitiveness has been continuously improved.

Benchmark procurement to optimize costs, expand the network platform to achieve sales focus. The company's main raw material PTA has a high correlation with oil prices. In 2021, the average prices of cost-side PTA and MEG were 4723 yuan and 5252 yuan per ton respectively, up 28.0% and 36.8% respectively over the same period last year. As of March 27, 22, the average cost-side PTA price was 5589 yuan / ton, compared with + 26% at the beginning of the year, 5171 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, and + 4.7% at the beginning of the year. Under the pressure of rising raw material prices, the company controls raw material costs to a certain extent through benchmarking, and with the help of higher raw material inventory scale, the actual raw material cost is relatively low under the background of rising oil prices and rising current prices of raw materials; and the company has appropriately raised prices by 10% 15% to downstream customers at the beginning of 22, and the control of the superimposed cost side will effectively ensure the profitability of the company. In addition, the company's overseas revenue declined slightly in 2021, with export sales of 820 million yuan for the whole year,-13.6% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the shortage of shipping containers in 21 years, high shipping costs, and the difficulty of booking warehouses caused by the epidemic. However, in the past 21 years, the overall domestic demand is more urgent than foreign demand, and the price is higher, so it has not had a great impact on the company's performance; at the same time, the company has taken measures that focus on sales and actively broadened online channels with the help of the network platform. continue to strengthen communication with customers, e-commerce platform sales revenue increased by 60% year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2022, the company adjusted its product structure and continued to meet market demand. According to the statistics of the first 12 weeks, Q1 exports increased by 60% compared with the same period last year. With the subsequent recovery of overseas economy and the decline of sea freight, the company's overseas sales are expected to recover quickly this year to further protect the company's profitability.

Profit forecast and valuation: considering the gradual launch of new production capacity of high-end functional film in 2022, 2023 and 2024, it is estimated that the company's net profit in 2022,2023 and 2024 is 1.95 billion yuan, 2.67 billion yuan and 3.38 billion yuan respectively, EPS is 1.7,2.3 yuan and 2.90 yuan respectively, PE is 11.7X, 8.6x, 6.8x respectively, with a target price of 38.8 yuan per share, with significant growth and maintain a "buy" rating.

Risk analysis: the project production is not as expected, and the downstream demand is not as expected.

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双星新材(002585)：高端材料布局逐渐扩大 新产能、新技术兑现未来可期

Double Star New Materials (002585): the layout of high-end materials is gradually expanding new production capacity and new technologies to meet the expectations of the future.

Risk Disclaimer

Statement

双星新材(002585)：高端材料布局逐渐扩大新产能、新技术兑现未来可期