Due to factors such as steady growth in revenue and impairment of goodwill, the company's net profit in 2021 increased by 18.7% to 2.066 billion yuan, while that in 2021 decreased by 2.8% to 168 million yuan, which was lower than we had expected (210 million yuan). This is mainly due to the impairment of 31 million yuan of goodwill to subsidiaries in 21 years, as well as the upward cost of raw materials. After reducing the impairment of goodwill, the return net profit increased by 15.1% to 198 million yuan, in addition, the 21-year deduction non-net profit fell 4.2% to 147 million yuan compared with the same period last year. We estimate that the EPS of the company in 22-24 is 0.19,0.23,0.27 yuan, and the BPS is 2.66,2.89,3.16 yuan. Since 2011, the historical center of the company's PB (LF) is 1.94x. In view of the slowdown in the growth of real estate sales since 2018, the company has been given a 22-year target PB of 1.43x PB (LF), corresponding to the target price of RMB3.80. maintain the "overweight" rating.
The wood-based panel business is growing steadily, and production capacity is expected to open room for growth. In terms of wood-based panels, under the background of 21 years of epidemic disturbance and rising raw material prices, the company actively optimizes the product structure, improves production efficiency and grabs market share. In 2021, wood-based panel business revenue increased by 14.0% year-on-year to 1.96 billion yuan. At the same time, the company actively promotes the construction of Qinzhou Industrial Park project, the annual output of 500000 cubic meters of super particleboard project has achieved the first board off the line, is expected to be officially put into production in 2022, capacity expansion opens the space for income growth. In terms of business afforestation, as an upstream raw material link, the company continues to optimize tree species structure, improve stand quality and risk resistance. Forest revenue in 2021 increased by 18.4% year-on-year to 76 million yuan, and gross profit margin increased by 8.58pct to 58.71% year-on-year.
The adjustment of accounting standards / the upward of raw material cost led to the decline of gross profit margin, and the net sales margin decreased by 12.5pct to 13.9% in 1.4pct21 year-on-year. The sharp decline in gross profit margin was mainly due to the implementation of the new accounting standards by the company, which converted the transportation, packaging and loading and unloading costs incurred in the implementation of the contract from sales expenses to operating costs, and was also affected by the upward cost of raw materials in 21 years. After reducing 173 million transportation and packaging costs, we expect the 21-year gross margin to fall by 4.1pct to 22.2% year-on-year. During the 21-year period, the expense rate decreased by 12.6pct to 5.5% compared with the same period last year, of which the sales expense rate decreased by 8.8pct to 0.7% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the adjustment of the above accounting standards, the management + R & D expense rate decreased from 1.7pct to 6.2% compared with the same period last year, and the financial expense rate decreased by 2.1pct to-1.4% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the foreign exchange gains carried over from New Zealand funds. Under the combined impact, the net interest rate on sales fell 1.4pct to 8.1% compared with the same period last year.
The leader of the wood-based panel industry, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Considering that the cost of raw materials is still high, we slightly reduce the gross profit margin of the wood-based panel business. It is estimated that the net profit of the company in 22-24 years will be 2.23 million yuan, 264,309 million yuan (2.42 million yuan before 22-23 years), corresponding to 0.19,0.23,0.27 yuan EPS and 2.66,2.89,3.16 yuan BPS. Since 2011, the historical center of the company's PB (LF) is 1.94x. Considering the slowdown in the growth of the real estate sales area since 2018, with reference to the average of 1.43x PB (LF) of the company since 2018, the company has been given a target PB of 1.43x in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 3.80RMB (the previous value is 3.93RMB), maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: the development of the epidemic is uncertain, downstream demand is lower than expected, and customer expansion is not as expected.