Highlights of the annual report: 1. After excluding the incomparable factors of the bill management business income recovered through litigation last year, the company's revenue growth continued to increase in 21 years, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.6%. At the same time, under the profit released by the provision for the improvement of asset quality, the net profit continued to maintain a high growth rate, and the return net profit increased by 19.0% compared with the same period last year. 2. Q4 net interest income is + 10.9% month-on-month, with both volume and price rising, mainly supported by interest spreads. The annualized interest rate spread rose sharply from 10bp to 1.51% in a single quarter, which was contributed by both the asset side and the liability side. The rate of return on assets rose to 3.78% from the previous quarter, and the rate of return on assets rose significantly, which is expected to be affected by both structural and interest rate factors. Q4 increased the investment of high-yield retail loans by 4.74 billion per quarter, driving up the return on assets. At the same time, the interest rate of new loans stabilized compared with the third quarter. 3. Retail mortgage loans remain stable, while consumer loans are accelerated. The growth of corporate personal loans was mainly due to the growth of operating loans and consumer loans, accounting for 28% of the increase, a big increase over the half-year. Mortgage growth accounts for 13.0%, which is basically the same as that of half a year. 4. The quality of assets remains excellent. The company's defect rate dropped to 0.91% by 1bp, still maintaining an excellent level. From the perspective of adverse pressure in the future, the company's concern is still low. The company's identification of defects is more stringent, and the provision for bad coverage has increased 39bp to 370.6% month-on-month.
The annual report is insufficient: 1. The core tier one capital adequacy ratio has decreased slightly compared with the previous month. In 2021, the core tier one capital adequacy ratio, tier one capital adequacy ratio and capital adequacy ratio are 10.47%, 11.77% and 16.40%, respectively, with a monthly ratio of-9bp,-14bp and + 212bp.
Investment suggestion: as a characteristic city commercial bank, the company 2022E, 2023E PB 0.77X 6.82X/5.93X 0.70X 6.82X/5.93X (city commercial bank PB 0.71X/0.63X) PE6.02X/5.33X), Xiamen Bank is located in a strong regional economy, a decentralized and balanced ownership structure (Xiamen Finance Bureau and Fubon Financial Holdings both own about 20%), loans are concentrated in manufacturing and wholesale industries, and loan pricing is better than that of the same industry. It is suggested that active attention should be paid to the asset quality stock.
Profit forecast adjustment: we adjust the profit forecast according to the 2021 annual report. It is estimated that the operating income of 2022Universe 2023Universe in 2024 is 60.70Universe 8.166 billion yuan (the previous value is 67.73Universe 74.79Universe), with a growth rate of 14.2% and 17.3%, 14.7%. The net profit of return to the parent is 2499287633.254 billion yuan (the previous value is 25.6627.73 billion), and the growth rate is 15.1% 13.2%. Core hypothesis adjustment: 1. Considering that the policy continues to guide financial institutions to give profits to entities, and the industry net interest margin is under pressure, adjust the corporate loan yield to 4.98%, 4.98%, 4.98%, and bond investment yield to 2.60%, 2.60%, 2.60%, 2.60%. two。 Corporate deposits are facing increasingly fierce inter-industry competition, the interest rate has been slightly increased, and the deposit interest rate has been adjusted to 2.35%, 2.35% and 2.35%. 3. The quality of the company's assets is better, the subsequent adverse pressure is less, and the provision expenditure / average loan is adjusted to 0.70% 0.70% 0.70% 0.70%.
Risk hint: the economic downturn is higher than expected, and the company's operation is not as expected.