This report is read as follows:
The company released the 2021 annual report, the operation is sound, the governance mechanism is expected to be further straightened out, to maintain the "overweight" rating.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating. In 2021, revenue reached 8.75 billion yuan, an increase of 20.46 percent, and a net profit of 595 million, a decline of 4.86 percent, slightly lower than market expectations. Taking into account the impact of the epidemic and other factors, we reduced the EPS in 2022-23 to 1.25,1.47 (- 0.22), an increase of 2024.
The annual EPS is 1.76 yuan, and the target price is reduced to 18.75 yuan (- 3.30) yuan according to the 22-year average PE of comparable companies.
Due to the decline in the growth rate affected by real estate in the fourth quarter, the company took the initiative to adjust its business strategy. The annual revenue growth rate dropped from 20% to 0% in Q4, which we believe mainly reflects the exposure of 2021H2 real estate risk events and the company's initiative to adjust its business strategy and abandon some B-end orders, resulting in a decline in revenue growth. 2022Q1 We estimate that the company's sales grew by 5% in January-February, but Q1 sales growth is expected to turn negative given the repeated outbreaks in eastern and southern China in March.
The operation is sound, and the gross profit margin is under pressure. The annual gross profit margin is 25.75%, with a drop of 3.5%. We judge that the core still comes from the low utilization of wood-based panel capacity, which is difficult to conduct price transmission in the context of rising bulk raw materials. As of the end of the period, the company had 2.167 billion cash on hand, an increase of 183 million; the total amount of accounts receivable was 1.913 billion, an increase of 560 million. The current sales ratio of 105% reflects the control of the company's C-terminal gene over the return, and the risk receivable can be controlled. The operating net cash flow is 589 million, which is the same as the net profit, and the asset-liability ratio remains at a low level of 32.77%.
The governance mechanism is expected to be further straightened out. We believe that Mr. Chen Jianjun will succeed as chairman of the company, and the control of the company will be firm. At the end of December 21, it was announced that Mr. Wu Guhua returned as president and secretary of the board, and the corporate governance mechanism is expected to be further straightened out.
Risk hint: the risk of sharp decline in real estate investment and rising cost of raw materials
