Sound operation, smooth financing channels, maintain "buy" rating
The sales scale of Xuhui holding Group continues to grow, and the land reserve focuses on the core cities. The investment side of the investment is strictly disciplined, and the cost of land remains low. Corporate financing channels are diversified and costs continue to decline, while leverage continues to maintain a medium-to-low level.
As the real estate market has been in the doldrums since the second half of 2021, we have lowered our profit forecasts for 2022 and 2023 and added profit forecasts for 2024: it is estimated that the net profit of 2022 and 2023 will be adjusted from 102.5 and 11.47 billion yuan to 76.3 and 8.31 billion yuan, and the net profit of 2024 will be adjusted to 10.05 billion yuan. The corresponding EPS is 0.87,0.95,1.14 yuan, and the current stock price corresponding to PE is 3.8,3.5,2.9 times. Considering the large-scale clearing of inefficient enterprises in the industry, the competition pattern is significantly improved, and the company has long-term healthy development potential to maintain the "buy" rating.
Contract sales are growing against the trend, and investment is strictly disciplined.
The company realized contract sales of 247.3 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 7 percent over the same period last year. The average sales price was 17067 yuan per square meter, up 13.7% from the same period last year. The rebate amount reached 240.3 billion, an increase of 20% over the same period last year, and the signed payback rate reached 95%. The company's products continue to iterate to strengthen the deep ploughing ability of the company's core cities. The proportion of the company's sales in first-and second-tier cities further increased to 87%. In 2021, the construction area of new land will be increased by 11.7 million square meters, corresponding to an additional salable value of 205.6 billion. Among the new goods value, first-and second-tier city projects accounted for 84%. By the end of 2021, the company has accumulated 59.83 million square meters of land, and the company is expected to have a sales value of more than 360 billion in 2022.
Overall performance remains stable and diversified business continues to develop.
In 2021, the company achieved an operating income of 107.8 billion yuan, an increase of 50.2% over the same period last year, and a core net profit of 7.3 billion, down 9.2% from the same period last year. The company's profit growth rate is lower than that of revenue growth, mainly due to the decline in settlement profit margin.
The company's diversified business maintained a high growth rate, holding commercial rental income of 1.03 billion in 2021, an increase of 74% over the same period last year.
Xuhui Yongsheng Service achieved a net profit of 620 million yuan for the whole year, an increase of 58.0% over the same period last year, with a signed area of 270 million square meters, an increase of 49.4% over the same period last year. Xuhui, a brand of long-term rental apartments, has signed more than 20,000 new contracts throughout the year.
The "three red lines" are all up to the standard, and the risk of the partner's project can be controlled by the end of 2021. By the end of 2021, the company's "three red lines" have all entered the green category: the net debt ratio is 62.8%, the asset-liability ratio excluding accounts received in advance is 69.7%, and the cash short-debt ratio is 2.6. The company will increase its financing costs by 4.0% in 2021, and the weighted financing costs of interest-bearing liabilities will be reduced to 5.0%. The company's debt due in 2022 is only one overseas bond, with a current balance of 1.48 billion yuan. At present, the company has disclosed a total of 21 out-of-danger housing-enterprise cooperation projects, accounting for less than 5%.
Risk hint: sales growth is lower than expected; industry regulation exceeds expectations.