Events. The company announces its 2021 results, KuaiBao. The company's operating income in 2021 is expected to be 688 million yuan, down 36.81% from the same period last year; net profit is expected to be-176 million yuan, down 232.41% from the same period last year; and non-net profit is expected to be-192 million yuan, down 253.29% from the same period last year.
According to the performance estimate of KuaiBao, the operating income of Q4 in 2021 is expected to be 123 million yuan, down 49% from the same period last year; the net profit is expected to be-225 million yuan; and the non-net profit is expected to be-230 million yuan.
Viewpoint: the company's income and performance in 2021 are affected by domestic COVID-19 epidemic situation, consistency evaluation and collection.
1. The company's income and performance in 2021 are affected by domestic COVID-19 epidemic situation, consistency evaluation and collection.
As the symptoms of COVID-19 and influenza are highly similar, with fever, dry cough, fatigue and other symptoms, terminal medical institutions have taken strong control measures on fever clinics, and the number of people has dropped sharply, resulting in a great reduction in the demand of terminal medical institutions for the company's product "Liwei" (Paramivir Sodium Chloride injection). As a result, the sales revenue of Liwei, the company's core product, decreased by about 433 million yuan in 2021 compared with 2020, a decrease of more than 50 percent over the same period last year, and a direct reduction of gross profit by about 350 million yuan. Under the influence of the national generic drug consistency evaluation policy, the sales revenue of the company's product "Simvastatin dispersible tablets" in 2021 decreased by about 57.18 million yuan compared with 2020, a decrease of 62.57% compared with the same period last year. The company's product "Kefule capsule" (cefaclor capsule) entered the national centralized purchasing catalogue of pharmaceutical products at the end of 2020. the sales revenue in 2021 decreased by about 68.76 million yuan and 67.67% compared with the same period in 2020. The sales revenue of the company's other products in 2021 is higher than that in 2020, but it accounts for a low proportion of sales revenue in 2021, and its contribution to sales revenue in 2021 is limited.
two。 Reorganize the investment logic of the company. Nanxin Pharmaceutical holds the echelon of 1x 2X innovation & consumer products. The stock variety of paramivir injection is expected to resume growth after the epidemic is stable, and sales are expected to peak at 20-3 billion. Rabies monoclonal antibody China and the United States double reported international quality, both innovation and consumption attributes, 3-5 years only 2 enterprises compete in the 10 billion level market, peak sales are expected to reach several billion levels. Paramivir inhalation solution is a high barrier dosage form that attacks the home drug market and is also expected to reach the level of billions of dollars in peak sales. There are other pipelines in the follow-up, which are of good quality and interesting.
Profit forecast and valuation. According to the performance of KuaiBao, we adjusted our profit forecast. Leaving aside Xingmeng Biology for the time being, we estimate that the operating income from 2021 to 2023 will be 688 million yuan, 885 million yuan and 1.14 billion yuan respectively, an increase of-36.8%, 28.6% and 28.9% respectively over the same period last year. The net profit of homing is-176 million yuan, 104 million yuan and 147 million yuan, respectively, and the corresponding growth rate is-232.4% lane 159.2% 40.6%. The corresponding PE is-1.26,0.74 and 1.05 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding EPS is-19x, 32x and 22x respectively.
Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: product sales are less than expected risk; product research and development failure risk; industrial policy negative impact risk; major asset restructuring failure risk.