Comments on Zhongyuan New Materials (603527) Annual report: continuous expansion of production capacity and continuous optimization of product structure

華泰證券 · Mar 27, 2022 00:00 · Researches

　　21 年归母净利同比增119.4%，维持“增持”评级3 月27 日公司发布年报，21 年实现营收67.8 亿元（yoy+76.7%）；归母净利1.38 亿元（yoy+119.4%），与前期业绩快报（2022-02）的1.2-1.5 亿元一致。21Q4 实现营收19.2 亿元（yoy+55.1%、qoq+8.4%），归母净利0.30亿元（yoy+150.0%、qoq-36.2%）。考虑公司产能扩张，我们上调22-23 年业绩预期，预计22-24 年EPS 为0.74/0.90/1.31 元（前值0.51/0.60/-元），可比公司PE（2022E）均值为20.0X，考虑公司拟建项目建设期较长，仍存一定不确定性，给予公司22 年18.0 倍PE，对应目标价13.32 元（前值9.69 元），维持“增持”评级。

　　21 年公司铜板带产品量价齐升，业绩同比大幅增长据公司年报，2021 年公司铜板带产品实现营收67.5 亿元（yoy+77.3%），，主因铜价上涨及公司募投项目全面投产，产销量增长较大，2021 年公司铜板带产品销量10.99 万吨（yoy+33.3%）。2021 年公司铜板带业务毛利率4.39%（yoy+0.05pct），公司采用“原材料价格+加工费”定价模式，盈利能力相对稳定，未受铜价大幅上涨影响。

　　受规模经济效应公司期间费用率下行，销售净利率同比+0.39pct21 年公司销售、管理、财务、研发费用率分别同比-0.07pct、-0.15pct、+0.06pct、-0.12pct 至0.21%、0.43%、0.33%、0.84%。受规模经济效应影响，公司期间费用率下行，其中财务费用上涨主因公司生产经营所需银行借款增加，导致利息支出增加。21 年公司销售毛利率4.51%（yoy+0.11pct），销售净利率2.03%（yoy+0.39pct），盈利能力有所改善。2021 年公司资产负债率44.5%（yoy+11.9%），有所上行。

　　拟定增补充资金来源，产能持续扩张

　　公司现有产线基本已达到满产满销状态，据公司公告（2022-009），公司拟募集资金7.5 元，主要用于“年产10 万吨高精度铜合金板带及5 万吨铜带坯生产线项目”（项目一），及“年产5 万吨电池箔项目”（项目二），以上项目均分为两期建设，总建设期分别36 个月及24 个月，其中项目二尚未签订正式协议。随着扩张项目持续推进，公司竞争力有望持续增强。

　　紧抓新能源行业发展机遇，维持“增持”评级

　　公司围绕新能源发展趋势，产能扩张与产品结构优化并行，我们预计22-24年EPS 为0.74/0.90/1.31 元，可比公司PE（2022E）均值为20.0X，考虑公司拟建项目建设期较长，仍存一定不确定性，给予公司22 年18.0 倍PE，对应目标价13.32 元，维持“增持”评级。

　　风险提示：铜带箔需求和产品良率不及预期，行业竞争格局恶化。

The 21-year net profit of returning to the mother increased by 119.4% compared with the same period last year. The company released its annual report on March 27 and achieved revenue of 6.78 billion yuan (yoy+76.7%) in 21 years. The net profit of returning to the mother was 138 million yuan (yoy+119.4%), which was consistent with the 1.2-150 million yuan of the previous performance KuaiBao (2022-02). 21Q4 realized revenue of 1.92 billion yuan (yoy+55.1%, qoq+8.4%) and net profit of 30 million yuan (yoy+150.0%, qoq-36.2%). Considering the company's capacity expansion, we raise our performance forecast for 22-23 years. It is estimated that the EPS for 22-24 years will be 0.74 + 0.90 + 1.31 yuan (0.51 + 0.60), and the average PE (2022E) of the comparable company will be 20.0X. Considering the long construction period of the proposed project, there is still some uncertainty. We will give the company 18.0 times PE for 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 13.32 yuan (previous value 9.69 yuan). Maintain the "overweight" rating.

According to the company's annual report, the company's revenue of copper plate and strip products reached 6.75 billion yuan (yoy+77.3%) in 2021, mainly due to the rise in copper prices and the full production of the company's fund-raising projects, resulting in a large increase in production and sales volume. In 2021, the company's copper strip product sales volume was 109900 tons (yoy+33.3%). In 2021, the company's copper strip business gross profit margin 4.39% (yoy+0.05pct), the company adopts the "raw material price + processing fee" pricing model, profitability is relatively stable, not affected by the sharp rise in copper prices.

Due to the effect of economies of scale, the rate of expenses during the period of the company declined, and the rate of sales, management, finance, and R & D expenses of the company was year-on-year + 0.39pct21 year-on-year-0.07pct,-0.15pct, + 0.06pct,-0.12pct to 0.21%, 0.43%, 0.33% and 0.84%, respectively. Affected by the effect of economies of scale, the expense rate of the company declined during the period, in which the increase in financial expenses was mainly due to the increase in bank borrowing needed for the production and operation of the company, resulting in an increase in interest expenditure. In 21 years, the company's gross sales margin was 4.51% (yoy+0.11pct), net sales margin was 2.03% (yoy+0.39pct), and profitability was improved. In 2021, the company's asset-liability ratio was 44.5% (yoy+11.9%), which showed an upward trend.

It is proposed to increase the sources of supplementary funds and continue to expand production capacity.

The company's existing production line has basically reached a state of full production and sale. according to the company announcement (2022-009), the company intends to raise 7.50 yuan, which is mainly used in the "annual production line project of 100000 tons of high-precision copper alloy strip and 50,000 tons of copper strip billet" (project 1). And the "annual output of 50,000 tons of battery foil project" (project 2), the above projects are divided into two phases of construction, the total construction period is 36 months and 24 months respectively. Project 2 has not yet signed a formal agreement. As the expansion project continues, the company's competitiveness is expected to continue to enhance.

Seize the development opportunities of the new energy industry and maintain the rating of "increasing holdings"

Centering on the development trend of new energy, the company's capacity expansion is paralleled with product structure optimization. We estimate that the EPS for 22-24 is 0.740.90 EPS 1.31 yuan, and the average PE (2022E) of the comparable company is 20.0X. Considering the long construction period of the company's proposed project, there is still some uncertainty, giving the company 18.0 times PE for 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 13.32 yuan, maintaining the "overweight" rating.

Risk hint: copper strip and foil demand and product yield are not as expected, and the competition pattern of the industry is deteriorating.

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众源新材(603527)年报点评：产能持续扩张 产品结构不断优化

Comments on Zhongyuan New Materials (603527) Annual report: continuous expansion of production capacity and continuous optimization of product structure

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众源新材(603527)年报点评：产能持续扩张产品结构不断优化