21Q4 income / homing net profit compared with the same period last year-5.7% pesque 21.3%, maintain "increase"
On March 25, the company released 21 annual report: the 21-year income / return net profit for 21 years is 4.53 billion yuan, compared with the same period last year, + 7.6% Universe 72.3% earnings / return net profit 1.13 billion yuan, compared with the same period last year.
The 21-year return net profit is in line with our expectations (50 million yuan). We believe that Baowu's entry into the company is still in progress, but in view of the increase in raw material prices but blocked transmission, the forecast for 22-23 years is lowered and the 24-year return net profit is forecast to be 0.61 trillion 0.77 trillion (0.83 trillion yuan before 22-23).
Comparable to the company's 22-year Wind consensus expected average 1.1xPEG, the company is 1.5x, taking into account the company's growth is better, so give a certain premium, given 22-year 1.6xPEG, the target price of 11.41 yuan (the previous value of 12.76 yuan), maintain the "overweight" rating.
In the past 21 years, the revenue of refractories has increased compared with the same period last year, and the gross profit per ton of refractories has significantly improved compared with the same period last year. In 21 years, the company's income of glass kiln / cement kiln / steel refractories was 4.7pm 10.6 / 2.73 billion yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year. + 18.9%, 1.2%, 8.2%, respectively. The higher growth rate of refractories used in glass kilns is mainly due to the increased development of the photovoltaic glass market. The price / cost / gross profit per ton of refractories for glass kilns in 21 years is-12.7%, 18.4%, 24.7%, 3.0%, 0.5%, 14.1%, respectively, for cement kiln refractories, and the price / cost / gross profit per ton of refractories for iron and steel is 2.3%, 3.6%, 6.4%. The 21-year gross profit margin is 17.3%, year-on-year + 1.6pct, of which glass kiln / cement kiln / iron and steel refractories gross profit margin is 19.1% 26.5% ram 14.3% TX 21Q4 gross profit margin 16.5%, same / month ratio + 7.2/-1.4pct, month-on-month downside raw material price increases and some steel mills reduce prices.
The 21-year expense rate rose slightly, and the operating net cash flow rate was 13.6% in the 21-year period compared with the same period last year, which was + 0.8pct compared with the same period last year. The sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate was 3.1%, 3.2%, 3.2%, 1.4%, compared with the same period last year. The increase in the management expense rate was mainly due to the increase in staff salaries and intermediary fees. The 21-year return net interest rate is 1.1%, which is 1.1% compared with the same period of last year + 0.4 pctTX 21Q4, which is the same as 0.2pct/. At the end of 21, the company's asset-liability ratio / interest-bearing liability ratio was 69.6% and 33.3%, compared with the same period last year-1.2/-0.3pct. The 21-year net cash flow of operation was 250 million yuan,-13.8% compared with the same period last year, of which 21Q4 was 150 million yuan.
Growth is expected to remain stable, and the background of central enterprises helps the company to take the lead. According to the company's annual report, the company plans to achieve a total revenue / profit of 475 million yuan in 2022, compared with 3.3% of + 4.7% of the same period last year. According to the China Refractory Association, from January to September 2021, the national output of refractory products was 20.04 million tons, + 8% compared with the same period last year, including 11.24 million tons of dense shaped refractory products, + 9% year-on-year.
The company is a refractory enterprise with the background of central enterprises, which is among the best in the industry, with a leading position in terms of technical level, innovation ability and brand influence, and is expected to maintain stable scale growth.
Risk hint: the prosperity of the iron and steel industry is declining, and the risk of failure of asset restructuring events.