Main points of investment
In 2021, the company achieved a total operating income of 7.673 billion yuan,-1.78% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the impact of reduced product sales. The operating income of cement, clinker, commercial concrete and aggregate was 6.898 billion yuan, 162 million yuan, 539 million yuan and 48 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of-1.51%, 35.81%,-13.95% and 59.25%, respectively. The average price of cement and clinker per ton is 300 yuan, which is basically the same as the same period last year; the cost per ton is 214.8 yuan, an increase of 27.8 yuan over the same period last year; and the gross profit per ton is 85.2 yuan, down 28 yuan from the same period last year.
In 2021, the company achieved a comprehensive gross profit margin of 27.61%, a decrease of 7.75pct compared with last year, mainly due to the sharp rise in raw coal prices and the rise in production costs. The gross profit margins of cement, clinker, commercial concrete and aggregate are 28.71%, 15.27%, 16.03% and 35.43%, respectively, with year-on-year changes-9.22pct,-2.59pct, 4.46pct and 6pct.
In 2021, the company achieved a net interest rate of 13.4%, down 6.43pct from last year, mainly due to a decline in gross profit margin; the expense rate during the period was 9.8%, up 0.05% from a year earlier. 1) the sales expense rate was 1.17%, which increased by 0.21pct and 19.65% compared with the same period last year. 2) the management expense rate was 8.64%, which decreased by 0.16pct, and the management expense decreased by 3.54% compared with the same period last year. 3) the financial expense rate was-0.01%, unchanged from the same period last year, and the financial expenses increased by 10.63% compared with the same period last year.
In 2021, the asset impairment loss + credit loss was-74 million yuan, an increase of 191.7% over the same period last year. The company's net operating cash flow in 2021 was 1.447 billion yuan, down 36.45% from the same period last year, and the net operating cash flow per share was 1.86 yuan, down 1.07 yuan per share.
Profit forecast: 1) the company is the largest cement manufacturer in Gansu-Qinghai-Tibet region and has a leading position in the key high-end engineering markets in the three provinces; 2) low-cost competitive advantage, with a number of limestone mines rich in reserves, reduce the risk of raw material price fluctuations and transportation costs; 3) the Gansu-Qinghai region is more flexible under the stable growth policy. We expect the return net profit from 2022 to 2024 to be adjusted to 10.82,12.01 and 1.292 billion yuan respectively, and the stock price corresponds to the dynamic PE of 7.0,6.3,5.8X on March 25, maintaining the "prudent overweight" rating.
Risk hints: raw material price fluctuations; macroeconomic fluctuations; understart of regional infrastructure projects, the impact of surrounding low-price cement; production progress is not as expected; repeated epidemic situation, cement factory is blocked under traffic control.