Core viewpoints
Silk Road Vision (300556.SZ) is a company that provides digital services around CG creativity and technology. In terms of convertible bonds, the issuance scale of Silk Road convertible bonds (123138.SZ) is small (240 million), the debt rating is A +, the protection of the bottom of the debt is low, and the parity is higher. In terms of pricing, the current price of Silk Road shares is 24.76 yuan, corresponding to the parity price of convertible bonds is 92.77 yuan. With reference to similar coupons such as Fenglong and Huicheng, and combined with the fundamentals of positive stocks, we expect that the reasonable parity premium rate of Silk Road convertible bonds should be around 29%. The corresponding price is around 119 yuan.
The "small but sophisticated" CG creative and technology service provider benefits from meta-cosmic mainline Silk Road Vision's companies that provide digital services around CG ideas and technologies. The third quarterly report of 2021 shows that CG-related orders account for about 99% of revenue. And the company is a light asset enterprise with human resources as the factor of production, with no long-term liabilities and relatively healthy capital structure. But its profitability is not strong in the past three years (the average ROE in the past three years is 6.3 per cent, and the net profit rate on sales is only 4.1 per cent). In addition, accounts receivable has accounted for more than 30% of revenue since the company went public, and the cash flow is seasonally strong (mainly at the end of the year). In the future, the company will focus on: 1, the Beta opportunities brought about by the continuous uptrend of metacosmos industry and the steady growth of market space, from which the company will directly benefit; 2, the product line will continue to be rich, and official government orders such as XR technology + smart city / Internet of things project + digital pavilion will form a synergy.
TMT company with low valuation, meta-universe theme is the biggest catalyst in the future, Silk Road Vision main business has dual attributes of computer and media, but its assets are light, performance fluctuations are large, coupled with low earnings quality, we might as well use PS indicators to judge. As of March 18, the company's ORPS was 10.2 yuan, with a closing price of 24.76 yuan, corresponding to a PS of around 2.43, which is near the 44% quantile since its listing. Compared with Jinqiao Information (PS TTM 3.10) and Hengfeng Information (4.81) in the same industry, Silk Road has a lower valuation. We believe that the small market capitalization of the company and the decline in flexibility in recent years may be the reason for its low valuation. In the future, the stock price trigger may be: 1, meta-universe theme attention continues to climb and industry Beta opportunities; 2, the company ushered in the winning bid and other good projects. In terms of risk, investors should not only beware of their payback problems, but also pay attention to the increasing competition in CG creative industries.
Clause analysis: the rating is poor, the protection of the bottom of the debt is low, and the parity is high. The par interest rates of applying for better safety pads are 0.5%, 0.7%, 1.2%, 1.8%, 2.5%, 3.0%, respectively, and the redemption price due is 115 yuan (including the annual interest of the last period). The term is 6 years, and the YTM corresponding to the face value is 3.40%. The debt / main body rating is Apocram A + (joint credit), and the maturity yield of the above 6-year A+ medium-and short-term bills is 8.80% (2022-3-18) as the discount rate, the debt is worth 74.24 yuan, and the protection of the debt is on the low side. The next revision clause is [15ramp 30redemption 85%], conditional redemption clause [15Compact 30130%], conditional resale clause [Last 2 years, 305070%]. The current share price is 24.76 yuan, corresponding to a parity of 92.77 yuan. On the whole, the terms and conditions of the voucher are set in a regular manner, and it is better to apply for a safety pad.
Analysis of purchase value and listing orientation
The current stock price of Silk Road convertible bonds is 24.76 yuan, corresponding to a parity of 92.77 yuan. You can refer to Fenglong of similar size and the same rating (parity 90.81 yuan, parity premium rate 29.63%) and Huicheng (parity 88.37 yuan, 32.73%). We believe that: 1, the scale of Silk Road convertible bonds is small, the attention is not high, it is a typical variety of weak qualification, it is difficult for most institutions to enter the warehouse, and the liquidity deviation is expected; 2, the fundamental attractiveness of positive stocks is not strong, and the small market capitalization leads to low coverage. Investors are expected to be relatively cautious about the bond. 3. We expect that the positioning of Silk Road listing is not high, or even lower than the average level of comparable varieties, on the contrary, there is an opportunity to pick up bargains, and investors are advised to collect chips in the period of low price and undervaluation. To sum up, we judge that the reasonable parity premium rate of Silk Road convertible bonds is about 29%, and the corresponding price is about 119 yuan.
Risk tips: the problem of repayment; the intensification of competition in the industry.
