This report is read as follows:
Negative factors are concentrated, the company's net profit has declined sharply, and it is expected that there will be some pressure on the company's performance in the next two years, but as the industry is paid more attention to risk prevention, the pressure on private enterprises is expected to be partially alleviated, that is, there is an opportunity to survive the cold winter.
Summary:
The company's performance forecast is lower than market expectations, taking into account the impact of impairment and profit margin decline, the company's profit forecast for 2021-2023 is 4.5 billion, 5.7 billion, 6.6 billion (originally 27 billion, 26.7 billion, 26.3 billion). At present, the company is actively dealing with the predicament of the industry. after the meeting of the Gold Stability Committee, regulators pay more attention to the risks of the industry, which may, to a certain extent, appropriately alleviate the liquidity pressure of private enterprises and usher in a new space after a difficult period. Considering the company's performance fluctuations and liquidity pressure in the past two years, we downgraded the company to carefully increase its holdings, and the current price is 6.0x PE in 2021.
Negative factors are concentrated, and the net profit of the announcement is expected to decline by about 85%. The main factors that have a significant impact on the company's performance in 2021 are KE Holdings Inc. 's stock price, impairment and declining profit margin. For the value of the company, KE Holdings Inc. 's share price is a secondary factor, and this year's loss is related to the early recognized investment income.
On the other hand, the core return net profit fell by 50%, which was also seen in the performance of some real estate enterprises in 2020. The decline in this profit is related to factors such as the lower-than-expected sales price, which is expected to bring some pressure on the company's performance in the past two years. Further attention should be paid to the strength of the company's impairment provision in 2021.
Gold stability committee meeting set the tone, real estate risk is expected to be controlled. In 2021, the superposition of multiple policies brought some pressure to private enterprises, especially the supervision of pre-sale funds made it more difficult to manage the cash flow of housing enterprises. Recently, the Golden Stability Commission will "study and put forward a strong and effective risk prevention and mitigation plan in a timely manner, and put forward supporting measures for the transformation to a new development model", which may have a certain slow release for real estate enterprises with high liquidity pressure. The leverage ratio of Sunac has declined significantly at the end of 2020, and recent asset sales have also been relatively rapid. In the first two months of 2022, sales reached 50.2 billion yuan, down 24% from the same period last year, slightly ahead of the same echelon companies.
Debt repayment is approaching, waiting for the annual report. In the near future, the domestic bonds approaching the return period are 20% financing 01 (4 billion), the maturing bonds are 16 financing 05 (1.44 billion), and some US dollar bonds are approaching maturity in the middle of the year. Due to the epidemic and other factors, the company's annual report revealed that there may be some delay. If you survive the cold winter, from the final point of view is expected to usher in the valuation switch opportunity.
Risk hint: liquidity has not improved significantly.