Smooth transformation: from a single reading business to "communication + reading" two-wheel drive, the communication field has achieved a "from 0 to 1" breakthrough, and is expected to complete the "1 to N" transition. Mercedes-Benz Information was founded in 2002 and listed on the growth Enterprise Market of Shenzhen Stock Exchange in December 2016. In the early stage of its development, the company carried out mobile reading business based on operators' channels, and grasped the mobile Internet dividend after listing to usher in rapid development. After the reading business growth peaked, the company actively sought transformation, acquired Shenzhen Zhaoneng in 2019, actively laid out the communications business with smart home as the core, and further extended to 5G access network, bearer network and other fields, and successfully transformed into a comprehensive company with two-wheel drive of communications and media.
Mobile reading: the old tree blossoms and the value of digital copyright is expected to be revalued. The digital reading industry has completed the stage of market education, and users are willing to pay more. Under the stimulation of technology popularization and epidemic situation, the market scale of the industry has increased steadily.
The company relies on operator channels to start, and through the CPS model, the establishment of differentiated own platform and other measures to further expand the coverage of mobile reading business market. As a large number of copyright resources accumulated by the company have been transformed into high-quality digital copyright reserves, derivative creation can be carried out based on IP resources in the future, and it is expected to rely on meta-universe to achieve efficient transformation and value reconstruction of copyright resources.
Communication: smart home + 5G device opens the space for growth. The Digital economy Development Plan of the 14th five-year Plan has put forward a quantitative target of 60 million for gigabit broadband users in 25 years. At the same time, the strong demand for high-quality network services will push users to switch from 100 gigabits to gigabit. According to the data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the penetration rate of gigabit broadband users in China is 6.40% at the end of 21, and the penetration rate of 100 Gigabit broadband users is 93.04%. We think that the long-term penetration of gigabit broadband (2030) is expected to exceed 80% and the number of gigabit broadband users in 25 is expected to exceed 200 million. With the gradual replacement of Wi-Fi5 equipment by Wi-Fi6, the unit price of the company's smart home products has increased significantly, and the company has ushered in an upward cycle of both volume and price. At the same time, the company will increase participation in 5G access network, carrier network and other 5G communications equipment plate, further improve the product layout, is also expected to expand the source of income. The company added 881 million yuan of new orders from January to February in 22 years. Combined with the disclosure of 21Q3 orders, we estimate that the size of the company's current orders-on-hand is 55-6 billion yuan, with strong performance certainty.
Meta-universe: relying on the differential layout of operators, the progress of meta-universe is accelerated. The company cuts into meta-universe through operators and can give full play to its unique advantages of content operation + intelligent terminals with the help of operator channels. On November 9, 21, the company signed a strategic cooperation agreement with China Mobile Virtual reality and Dazhu Robot to lay out the robot meta-universe; on January 11, 22, China Mobile Limited Communications Federation Meta-Universe Industry Committee announced the admission list of the first batch of members, the company became the first batch of members, and served as vice chairman. On March 17, 22, the company signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Unicom online and Xinhuanet to jointly build meta-universe joint laboratory, super video, digital virtual human and other meta-universe scenes.
Investment advice: the company's smart family business to maintain a high boom, and actively rely on operator differentiation layout meta-universe, the growth path is clear. We estimate that the return net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 is 577 million yuan, corresponding to the PE multiple of 25x/17x/12x. Cover for the first time and give a "recommended" rating.
Risk hint: smart family business development is not as expected; market competition is intensified; meta-universe is not as good as expected.
