The company has high-quality mine resources in Jiaodong Peninsula, ranking third in the same industry with strong alpha attributes: the company has high-quality gold resources in Jiaodong Peninsula. Its gold deposits include Dayingezhuang Gold Mine and Xiadian Gold Mine, which have the characteristics of large reserves, high grade and low mining cost. The company has nearly 1200 tons of resources, ranking third among domestic listed companies. Regardless of the company's other mines in production and future acquisition expectations, the company's three major mine sea area, Dayingezhuang and Xiadian three major gold mines are estimated to be 77.77 / 8.632 billion yuan by DCF method, totaling 33.567 billion yuan, which is higher than the company's current market capitalization of 18.808 billion yuan. We believe that the company has a strong alpha attribute.
The company has entered a new stage of development, the sea gold mine will be put into production in 2023, and the company's future mineral gold output will increase greatly: with the resumption of production of the company's mines in the port, the output is expected to increase significantly in 2022. With the commissioning of sea gold mines and the expectation of future overseas mergers and acquisitions, the gold output is expected to reach nearly 20 tons and 34.82 tons in 2023-2024, 48.14 tons in 2025 and 47% CAGR in 2022-2025. The output of mineral gold will increase greatly.
Inflation expectations rise sharply, precious metals or welcome the new cycle: as overseas inflation rises, real interest rates in the United States will re-enter the downward channel, superimposed by the intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the position of gold in asset allocation will rise significantly in the future. Gold prices are expected to continue to rise.
Profit forecast: the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 is expected to be 69.60, 78.68 / 9.921 billion yuan, with a growth rate of-10%, 13%, 26%, and is expected to achieve a net profit of 0.34, 10.91 and 1.644 billion yuan, corresponding to 0.01, 0.33 and 0.50 yuan, respectively, and the PE of the current stock price is 562-17-12, respectively. Considering the rapid growth of the company's performance, it will be covered for the first time. Give a "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: gold price fluctuation risk, mine production is not as expected, safety accidents and environmental protection risks.