Event: in 2021, the company achieved operating income of 113.851 billion yuan, an increase of 39.5% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 5.332 billion yuan, an increase of 168.95% over the same period last year. The net profit of non-return was 5.413 billion yuan, an increase of 264.37% over the same period last year. The operating income in the fourth quarter was 28.036 billion yuan, down 3.16% from the previous month and an increase of 19.79% over the same period last year; the net profit was-1.195 billion yuan, deducting the non-return net profit-1.275 billion yuan, resulting in a loss compared with the previous quarter.
In 2021, the price of long wood, plate and gross profit rose sharply, and the company's net profit was the second highest in history: in 2021, the average price of long wood was 4580 yuan / ton (year-on-year + 39.0%), the average price of plate was 5156 yuan / ton (+ 33.5%), and the average price of axle steel was 10250 yuan / ton (+ 3.1% year-on-year). The increase in long wood and plate prices pushed revenue to an all-time high. The average gross profit of long wood is 398 yuan / ton (+ 60% year-on-year), the average gross profit of plate is 855 yuan / ton (+ 141%), and the average gross profit of wheel and axle steel is 1598 yuan / ton (+ 0.2%). The improvement of gross profit of long wood and plate products makes the company's return net profit second only to 2018 (5.943 billion yuan).
In 2022, the company's steel production target is to increase slightly by 2.2%. In 2022, the company's crude steel and steel business target is to produce 2097 and 20.9 million tons, which is the same as the actual production situation in 2021, an increase of 2.2%.
The company's three expense rates are the lowest since 2011, and the R & D expense rate is the highest since 2011. In 2021, the company's sales, management and financial expense rate further fell to 2.0%, the lowest since 2011. The steel product per ton steel fee is 100 yuan per ton, down 29.52% from the same period last year. In order to enhance the overall R & D capability and improve its competitiveness in the high-end product market, the company's R & D expenditure rate in 2021 was 4.0%, the highest since 2011, with R & D expenses accounting for 30.2% of the company's gross profit and 195 yuan / ton per ton of steel, an increase of 132.6% over the same period last year.
In 2021, the company's dividend ratio was 50.6%. The A-share dividend rate reached 8.81%: the company's average dividend ratio from 2018 to 2020 (50.6%) was second only to Fangda Special Steel and Baosteel shares in Pudong Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., with a year-on-year dividend ratio of 50.5% in 2021, and the current A share price corresponds to a dividend yield of 8.81% in 2021.
The exercise conditions of the company's draft equity incentive plan correspond to the performance in 2022-2024, which is 4.10 billion RMB 4.63 billion RMB 5.28 billion yuan:
The company issued a draft equity incentive plan in December 2021, and the performance exercise conditions are as follows: (1) based on the performance unlocking condition, the rate of return on cash on net assets is not less than 22%, 24% and 28%; (2) under the condition of performance unlocking, the compound growth rate of total profit (excluding non-recurring profit and loss) in 2022-2024 is not less than 7%, 7% and 10% compared with 2020. We estimate that the non-parent net profit deducted by the company from 2022 to 2024 is at least 4.63 trillion yuan, corresponding to 7.5,6.6 and 5.8 times of A-share PE on March 23.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the company has the characteristics of high dividend and high performance guarantee, and the product structure is gradually optimized. We maintain the company's 2022-2023 homing net profit forecast of 50.56,5.202 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.66,0.68 yuan respectively. The new company's 2024 homing net profit is forecast to be 5.365 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS 0.70 yuan, maintaining the "overweight" rating of An Alliance H shares.
Risk tips: crude steel production restrictions are not as expected; terminal demand is declining; rising steel prices lead to the risk of government regulation.