In 2021, the company's revenue grew steadily, and the net operating cash flow improved significantly. Watson Biology announced its annual results for 2021, with revenue of 3.46 billion yuan, up 17.8 percent over the same period last year, net profit of 430 million yuan, down 57.4 percent, deducting 590 million yuan of non-net profit, down 17.3 percent over the same period last year, and net operating cash flow of 710 million yuan, an increase of 517.6 percent. Among them, the Jiahe biological and other equity assets held by the company lead to the change of the fair value of the company-280 million yuan, which has a negative impact on the company's profits.
The 13-valent pneumonia vaccine is expanding against the trend under the influence of the epidemic, and Morocco is expected to open up the export market. In 2021, the company overcame the difficulties and impact of the epidemic on routine vaccination. The revenue of 13-valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine was 2.75 billion yuan, an increase of 65.6% over the same period last year. In April 2021, Yuxi Watson entered into a cooperation with MarocVax Sarl of Morocco to sign an exclusive distribution agreement for the import, distribution and sale of finished products of 13-valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine produced by Yuxi Watson in Morocco and its cooperation business of raw solution supply. At present, 13-valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine has been licensed to be listed in Morocco, and according to the agreement, the company will export no less than 2 million doses of 13-valent pneumonia vaccine every year.
The 2-valent HPV vaccine was applied for market, and the 9-valent HPV vaccine was prepared for phase III clinical trial. The company's 2-valent HPV vaccine will be included in the priority review list in July 2021, and the relevant declaration for production is under way, and we expect the product to be approved in the near future. The 9-valent HPV vaccine is preparing for phase III clinical trials and is expected to promote phase III clinical work in 2022.
The mRNA COVID-19 vaccine entered the stage of clinical case collection in phase III. The company promotes COVID-19 vaccine research and development on three technical routes: (1) the company's mRNA COVID-19 vaccine is in the III phase, and the case collection work is being carried out; (2) the chimpanzee adenovirus vector COVID-19 vaccine is in the II phase; (3) the recombinant COVID-19 vaccine (CHO cell) independently developed by Shanghai Zerun is in the II phase, and the recombinant vaccine for the mutant has also entered the clinical stage.
MCV4 is in stage III, and the quadruple vaccine has obtained clinical approval. In addition to the above products, the company's ACYW135 meningococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine has entered the III phase clinical, the 4-valent influenza virus cleavage vaccine and recombinant EV71 vaccine are in phase I clinical, and the quadruple vaccine (adsorbing acellular diphtheria / Haemophilus influenzae combined vaccine) has obtained clinical trial approval.
We will actively distribute new technology platforms such as mRNA vaccines and siRNA drugs. The company cooperates with San Nuo Pharmaceuticals for general influenza virus siRNA drugs, develops influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, COVID-19 mutant and other mRNA vaccines with Blue Magpie organisms, and cooperates with Abe Biology for COVID-19 and herpes zoster mRNA vaccines.
Profit forecast and valuation. We estimate that after excluding COVID-19 's vaccine income, the company's 2021-24 net profit will be 428 million yuan, 1.222 billion yuan, 1.739 billion yuan and 2.172 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 102% in 2021-23. Referring to the average PE/G of comparable companies, we give Watson biology 0.75-0.85 times PE/G in 2022, corresponding to a reasonable market value range of 931-105.5 billion yuan, a reasonable value range of 58.14-65.89 yuan, and a rating of "better than the market".
Risk hints: research and development risk, newborn birth population change risk, continuous risk of domestic COVID-19 epidemic situation, intensified risk of domestic vaccine market competition, COVID-19 vaccine market demand and competition risk, international market risk and so on.