Zhitong Financial APP learned that CITIC released a research report saying that the hydrogen energy sector market in 2021 is mainly driven by policy, and the introduction of industry development plans may bring a new round of catalyst for hydrogen energy companies and push stock prices into a new round of rise. With the increase of layout enterprises and the appearance of policy effect, the expectation of industry industrialization acceleration is also more clear. It is suggested that attention should be paid to the companies with active layout and first-mover advantages in all aspects of the hydrogen energy industry chain: fuel cell stack, system-related 688339.SH and Xiongtao shares (002733.SZ), Meijin Energy (000723.SZ) and Dongfang Electric (01072) in the whole industry chain, Weichai Power (02338) in the field of hydrogen energy heavy truck, Dongyue Group (00189), Pan-Asia Microwave (688386.SH) and other key materials related to proton exchange membranes. In the storage and transportation equipment related capital shares (600860.SH), snowman shares (002639.SZ), ice wheel environment (000811.SZ), Furuitte equipment (300228.SZ), green hydrogen production and application related Baofeng Energy (600989.SH).
CITICThe main points are as follows:
The top-level design of the industry is about to land, and the multi-dimensional policy system is gradually improved.
According to a notice posted on the website of the National Development and Reform Commission, a press conference will be held on March 23 to introduce the medium-and long-term plan for the development of the hydrogen energy industry (2021-2035). It is expected that as the top-level design for the development of the hydrogen energy industry, the industrial development goal, application prospect and development path will be clearly defined, and the policy system of the hydrogen energy industry has been gradually improved in conjunction with the launch of the fuel cell demonstration and application policy at the end of August last year and the hydrogen energy industry planning of the local government. The establishment of industry "rules of the game" and policy system will not only help encourage large-scale and technologically leading enterprises to stand out, but also help to strengthen investors' confidence in the development of the hydrogen industry and boost the long-term expectations of the industry.
Industry development in 2022 is expected to press the fast forward button.
With the landing of the demonstration application policy in 2021, hydrogen energy enterprises have more clear subsidies and product pricing, and orders for the fuel cell vehicle industry chain have increased significantly. Inspired by the medium-and long-term planning of the industry and the goal of "double carbon", local governments and state-owned enterprises are also expected to actively promote the landing of hydrogen energy projects and "carbon reduction" applications. We expect that the new increment of fuel cell vehicles in 2022 is expected to reach the level of 8000 to 10,000 vehicles, in which hydrogen heavy trucks have obvious advantages in terms of subsidy and application scenarios. According to the statistics of the China Automobile Association, the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles more than tripled in the first two months of this year compared with the same period last year. We estimate that the sales of passenger cars / heavy trucks / logistics vehicles will reach 1000,3500 and 4500 respectively in 2022. In addition, the shipments of equipment in hydrogen production, electrolytic cells and storage / transportation / plus industry chain will also accelerate with the volume of vehicles, and the industrial development is expected to press the fast-forward button.
Not only hydrogen cars: there may be new breakthroughs in green hydrogen and industrial applications.
It is expected that the promotion of green hydrogen in 2022 will be more in-depth. On the one hand, with the increase of new energy power stations, the energy storage demand may lead to an increase in some green hydrogen production projects; on the other hand, the demand for green hydrogen in the industrial sector is also expected to increase. We predict that the sales volume of electrolytic cell equipment may exceed 1GW in 2022, corresponding to the market size of 30 ~ 5 billion yuan. The application of new technologies of hydrogen energy is mainly reflected in the field of industrial carbon reduction, and these technologies have made rapid progress in 2021, such as hydrogen metallurgy, natural gas mixed with hydrogen power generation, and so on. It is expected that the new breakthrough in 2022 application is also expected to give birth to a new track.
Risk Tips:The progress of key technologies is slow, and the industrial support policy is lower than expected.
This article is edited from "CITIC Research", analyst:Zu Guopeng, Wang Zhe, Yuan Jiancong and Hua PengweiYin Xinchi and Teng GuanxingFinancial Editor of Zhitong: Huang Xiaodong.