Investment logic
Iron lithium cathode: 1. Product power: iron lithium gradually from homogenization to product and cost difference. two。 Upstream:
The company completes the distribution of upstream raw materials such as lithium source and phosphorus source through joint investment and strategic cooperation with Sichuan Stillium Industry and Chuanheng shares to realize the upstream and downstream integration strategy. 3. Downstream: the company is deeply bound to the downstream high-quality battery manufacturer Ningde era, through the cycle ability without worry. 4. The path of cost reduction is clear: there are various cost reduction routes in the iron and lithium industry, among which the company is expected to open the cost reduction channel of oxalic acid method in the future through the diversity of the use of raw materials, supply chain integration, selection of producing areas and so on. 5. Production capacity: it is estimated that the nominal production capacity of iron lithium may reach 12.2 or 222000 tons by the end of 23rd. 6. Price: the price is affected by the price of iron lithium upstream raw material lithium carbonate (which has risen to 500,000 yuan / ton), and at present, the shortage of lithium supply will continue. We expect the company's iron lithium cathode price to remain high above 130,000 yuan / ton in 22nd and 23rd.
Intelligent electronic control: cut into Huawei industry chain, create intelligent electronic control product matrix, and form integrated advantages. Relying on United Electronics and Huawei, on the basis of the continuous climbing increment of the vehicle electric drive reducer, the company continues to build the intelligent electronic control product matrix and form the advantage of system integration, of which the first phase 150,000 sets / year vehicle electric drive reducer has completed mass production, and the second phase 180000 sets / annual production capacity is expected to be mass produced in the first half of 22 years.
We expect revenue growth of 220% and 31% for the sector in 22 and 23 years.
Fund-raising projects: the total amount of capital raised by the company in March 2022 will not exceed 1.5 billion yuan, of which 860 million yuan will be used for the intelligent electric control business of new energy vehicles, 272 million yuan for the construction of 50,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate, and 368 million yuan for supplementary working capital. it is expected to help the company's development.
Investment advice and valuation
The company deeply binds the battery leader Ningde era, without fear of iron lithium cycle disturbance, with the next 22 years of new iron lithium production capacity, intelligent electronic control capacity has been put into production, 2021-2023 company net profit is expected to be 4.08,7.19, 1.097 billion yuan, reference to comparable companies, give the company 2022 30 times PE, the target market value of 21.6 billion yuan, corresponding to the target price of 29.02 yuan / share, the first coverage, given the "buy" rating.
Risk.
New energy battery technology iteration risk; automotive industry cycle fluctuation risk; new energy lithium positive electrode overcapacity risk; subsidiary sublimation technology performance lower than expected risk.
