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芒格的38条投资建议:忘记错误本身就是一个可怕的错误

Munger's 38 investment tips: Forgetting a mistake itself is a terrible mistake

聰明投資者 ·  Mar 22, 2022 23:50

Source: smart investors

"I keep seeing that the people who make a fortune in life are not the smartest people, sometimes not even the most diligent people, but they are all learning machines. When they go to bed every night, they become a little smarter than when they get up that morning. "

"if you want to improve your cognitive skills, then forgetting your mistakes is a terrible mistake in itself. "

"I want to talk about how to develop the temperament of holding stocks without anxiety. Character alone won't work. You need to have a lot of desire for knowledge for a long time. "

All of the above comes from Munger's investment wisdom. Buffett's eldest son once said that his father was the second smartest man he knew, and Charlie Munger ranked first. Smart Investor has collected 38 pieces of investment advice from the "smartest" Munger. In fact, not only in terms of investment, but many of them are also about the philosophy of life. Everyone who has finished reading carefully should be a little smarter than when he gets up in the morning.

Reason is a moral obligation.

1. The idea of being objective and calm will never be out of date.

Reason is not something you can make more money if you do it; it is a binding principle. Reason is indeed a good idea. You must avoid doing meaningless things that have become customary in private. It needs to cultivate an ideological system to improve your success rate over time.

3. Being rational is not something you can choose to do or not to do; it is a moral obligation that you need to fulfill as much as possible. Berkshire Hathaway did well not because we were smart from the start, but because we were ignorant. Any great achievement of Berkshire Hathaway begins with stupidity and failure.

Forgetting a mistake is a terrible mistake in itself.

The most serious mistake in Berkshire's history is the mistake of missing an opportunity. We saw many good opportunities, but did not take action. These are huge mistakes-we have lost billions of dollars. Up to now, we are still making such mistakes. We are improving this defect, but we have not completely got rid of it.

5. Such mistakes can be divided into two categories: (1) doing nothing, which Warren calls "sucking my thumb"; (2) some stocks should have bought a lot, but only a little.

6. After almost making the big mistake of not buying Xi Shi candy, we made the same mistake many times. Obviously, we are slow to learn our lessons. These opportunity costs are not reflected in the financial statements, but they cost us billions of dollars.

7. If Xishi Candy (when we bought it) asked for another $100000 (Buffett chimed in, "$10,000"), Warren and I would walk away-we were that stupid.

Ella Marshall says you two guys are crazy-there are things worth spending money on, such as high-quality enterprises and quality people. You have underestimated the value of quality. We listened to his criticism and changed our minds.

This is a good lesson for everyone: be able to accept criticism constructively and learn from it.

8. I don't want you to think that we have any way to learn or do things that we can promise not to make mistakes again.

9. If you want to improve your cognitive ability, it is a terrible mistake to forget your mistakes. Reality won't remind you. Why not celebrate these two stupid mistakes?

10. By trying not to be stupid, rather than trying to do something very smart, we have gained a considerable long-term advantage. As the saying goes, "those who drown will water", which must be very reasonable.

People who make a fortune in life are learning machines.

(one of the key factors for successful investment is having a good personality-most people can't help it or worry too much.

Success means being very patient and yet being able to take the initiative when you know it's time to take action.

13. I would like to talk about how to cultivate the temperament of holding stocks without anxiety. Character alone won't work. You need to have a lot of desire for knowledge for a long time.

You must have a strong interest in figuring out the reasons behind what is happening. If you can maintain this state of mind for a long time, your ability to pay attention to reality will gradually improve. If you don't have this mindset, then even if you have a high IQ, you are doomed to fail.

If you are going to be an investor, there will always be areas of investment that you do not fully understand. But if you study hard and make progress, you can guarantee that your investments will produce good results. The key is self-discipline, diligence and practice. It's like playing golf-you have to practice hard.

16, I haven't found anyone who can do it quickly (to be a great investor). As an investor, Warren Buffett is much better than I was when I first met him, and so am I. So the trick is to keep learning. You should enjoy the learning process.

17. I've been watching Warren for decades. Warren learned a lot, which enabled him to (expand his circle of abilities, so he could invest in companies like Petrochina Company Limited).

18. I keep seeing this situation that the people who make a fortune in life are not the smartest people, sometimes not even the most diligent people, but they are all learning machines. Every night when they go to bed, they become a little smarter than when they get up in the morning, but it does help, especially when you still have a long way to go. Therefore, if civilization can only make progress by virtue of an advanced method, it must be a way to learn.

In my long life, there is nothing more helpful to me than to keep learning. I have been practicing a multidisciplinary approach all my life (because if I don't practice, I will lose it).

20, any skill will be used in and out. Before the age of 20, I was a master of calculus, and then, because I didn't use it at all, this skill soon disappeared completely.

Recognize and stick to your own circle of abilities.

Most people who try to "invest" are not doing well. But the problem is that even if 90% of people do not perform well, many people will still look around and say, "I am the 10%."

There are many things we have come into contact with. We have three options: yes, no, it's too difficult. Unless we are particularly optimistic about a project, we classify it as a "too difficult" option. All you need to do is look for a special area of competence and focus on it.

23, if you do have the ability, you will know very well where the boundary of your circle of ability is. Ability without boundaries cannot be called ability at all. (if you ask yourself if you are beyond the scope of the circle of ability,) then the question itself is the answer.

Some people are very good at recognizing the boundaries of their knowledge because they have to. Imagine a professional tightrope walker who is still alive after walking for 20 years. Unless he knows exactly what he knows and what he doesn't know, he won't be able to walk a tightrope for 20 years. He will practice very hard because he knows that if he makes a mistake, he will die. Survivors know that.

Concentrated investment is a good business.

25. Our investment style has a name-centralized investment, which means that we invest in 10 companies, not 100 or 400.

Our investment rule is to wait for a good ball to appear.

27. Good investment projects are rare, so it seems to me a good idea to concentrate money on a few projects.

28. The funny thing is that most large investment institutions don't think like this. They hired a lot of people to compare which is more valuable, Merck or Pfizer Inc, and to analyze every constituent stock in the S & P 500, thinking they could beat the market. You can't beat the market by doing this.

29. It is a crazy idea that investment should be as diversified as possible. We think that almost all good investments have a relatively low degree of diversification.

30, if you cut out our 15 best decisions, our performance will be very mediocre. What you need is not a lot of action, but a great deal of patience. You must stick to your principles, and when the opportunity comes, you will try your best to seize them.

Buy an excellent enterprise at a reasonable price

There are two types of enterprises: the first earns 12% a year, and you can take away the profits by the end of the year. The second category earns 12% a year, but all excess cash must be reinvested-it always pays no dividends.

This reminds me of the guy who sold construction equipment-he looked at the second-hand machines that he had eaten from customers who bought new equipment and said, "all my profits are there, rusting in the yard." "We hate that kind of business.

32, coefficient, modern portfolio theory and so on-all of which don't make sense to me. What we want to do is to buy companies with sustainable competitive advantages at low prices, or even reasonable prices.

People calculate too much and think too little.

We tend to invest a lot of money in places where we no longer have to make other decisions.

35. The motivation for buying and selling securities should refer to intrinsic value, not price momentum.

The first idea is to regard the stock as the ownership of the enterprise.

If you buy something because it is undervalued, you must consider selling it when its price rises to your expected level. That's hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit down. That's a good thing.

For many years, our usual practice is that if the prices of things we like (stocks) and so on fall, we will buy more. Sometimes when something happens and you realize you're wrong, quit. But if you are confident in your reasoning, increase your holdings and take advantage of the stock price.

References: the Treasure Book of Poor Charlie, the principles of Charlie Munger

Edit / Viola

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