Core ideas:
Raw material prices continue to fall, profitability is expected to improve. Since the beginning of this year, the prices of the company's main raw materials, DMC and trimethylamine, have continued to decline. as of March 21, according to wind data, the ex-factory price of Shi Da Shenghua DMC is about 6000 yuan / ton, down 44% from the year's high. According to the prospectus, according to the company's 2019 caliber, for every 10% increase in the average purchase price of DMC and trimethylamine, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin fell by 1.55% and 1.23%, respectively. Assuming that the unit price of the company's products is stable, profitability is expected to continue to improve in the event of a decline in raw material prices.
TMAH developer production capacity, product applications continue to upgrade. (1) in order to meet the growing demand downstream, the company's annual production capacity of 50,000 tons of TMAH developer project has been put into operation since the second half of 2020, with an additional production capacity of 34000 tons in the first phase. Sichuan investment-raising project under construction is expected to be put into production in June 22, with an additional production capacity of 40,000 tons, and the production capacity of TMAH developer has increased from 56000 tons in 2019 to 146000 tons in 2022. (2) the company's TMAH developer is mainly used in the field of display panels, focusing on breakthroughs in the semiconductor IC field since 2021, the company has further enriched the patent layout, and has completed the authorization of 1 invention patent and 2 practical patents. The developer has passed the semiconductor target manufacturer's laboratory sample evaluation, and passed the brand IC customer on-site audit.
Sichuan fund-raising projects have been put into production, and the product matrix continues to be rich. The company's fundraising project Sichuan Glinda 100kt/an Electronic Materials Project (Phase I) is under construction and is expected to be completed in June 2022.
In addition to the TMAH developer project, the company's fundraising project also includes an annual production capacity of 15,000 tons of BOE etching solution and 5000 tons of aluminum etching solution. The second phase will build ITO etching solution, copper etching solution and other complex wet electronic chemicals. In the future, based on TMAH developer, the company is expected to expand horizontally to develop other functional wet electronic chemicals, enrich the product matrix and create new profit growth points.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the company's EPS in 21-23 will be 1.02 euro 1.49 yen per share, respectively. With reference to the comparable company's average PE valuation in 2022, it will give the 2022 results 30 times the PE valuation level, corresponding to a reasonable value of 44.60 yuan per share, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint. Customers concentrate risks; fund-raising projects are not as expected; raw material prices have increased significantly.
