Report guide

Minimally invasive robot is the only general surgery robot manufacturer in the world, covering five plates: endoscope, orthopaedics, panvascular, transnatural lumen and percutaneous puncture. In January 2022, the company approved endoscopic surgery robot, joint replacement robot is also expected to be approved in 2022, 2023 is expected to increase the company's revenue.

Main points of investment

The only manufacturer of general surgery robots in the world

Minimally invasive surgery Robot is a minimally invasive medical company that develops, produces and sells surgical robots. It is the only company in the world that covers the rapidly growing portfolio of five major surgical specialties, namely endoscopy, orthopaedics, panvascular, natural lumen and percutaneous puncture surgery. In January 2022, the company's Tumai endoscopic surgery robot was approved, and we expect the swan orthopaedic surgery robot to be approved in 2022.

The number of endoscopic surgery robots in China is expected to reach 2.6 billion in 2026. CAGR48.8%, drives the company to have an income of 2.6 billion yuan in 2026.

Frost&sullivan expects 681098 robot-assisted endoscopic surgeries in 2026, the penetration rate will increase from 0.5% to 3.0% in 2020-26, and the number of surgical robots will increase from 189to 2050, CAGR48.8%.

In January 2022, the company listed the first generation of Tumai, which is used in urology, and the second generation, which covers more departments, is also registered. we expect to be listed in late 2022 or early 2023, and 2023 may be the first year of the company's endoscopic surgery robot. as the only approved four-arm endoscopic robot in China, it is directly calibrated to da Vinci, under the background of policy encouragement and the rapid growth of endoscopic surgery robots. With reference to Leonardo da Vinci's domestic volume rhythm, we assume that the company's annual installed capacity is growing steadily, the company's market share will reach 18% in 2026, and the celiac robot sector may have an income of 2.6 billion yuan.

Orthopaedic surgery robot, may have 570 million income in 2026

The number of joint replacement robots in China CAGR189.5%, drives the company to have an income of 570 million yuan in 2026. Frost&sullivan predicts that 79964 robot-assisted joint replacements will be performed in 2026, the penetration rate will increase from 0.03% in 2020 to 3.05% in 2026, and the number of joint replacement robots will also increase from 17 to 788, CAGR189.5%. We expect that the swan joint replacement robot will be put on the market in 2022 and is expected to be released in 2023. At present, the joint replacement robot is only approved by Mako and Hua Ruibo. Among the registered manufacturers, Yuan Intelligent Technology, Jian Jia and so on, the promotion of overseas manufacturers is weak, mainly domestic manufacturers are in the competitive market, assuming that several domestic companies will share the domestic market equally by 2026. There is a synergistic effect between the company's joint replacement robot and its joint implant products in the channel, and the commercialization ability is stronger. We give that the market share of the company's system is 25% in 2026, and the orthopedic robot sector may have an income of 570 million yuan.

Other surgical robots will be available after 2026.

Early layout, long-term volume. The company's independent products have been designed and developed by bronchial surgery robot and TAVR surgery robot. With reference to the time node from design to approval, we think that transbronchial surgery robot and TAVR surgery robot are expected to be approved around 2025. By the end of 2021, none of the above robot products have been approved in China. Frost&sullivan predicts that by 2026, the installed capacity of natural lumen surgery robots and pan-vascular surgery robots in China is expected to reach 113,595 respectively.

Profitability analysis

Gross profit margin will remain relatively high. We believe that by 2030, as the amount of robots is still low, there is little possibility of collection, but with the increase in the number of manufacturers, the price reduction will be an inevitable trend, especially the price of consumables, but as the volume cost of the company's products will gradually decline, there is still a large gross profit margin. The gross profit margin of the company from 2022 to 2030 may be 62.5% and 76.4%.

The rate of the three major expenses has declined steadily, and the company may remain at a stable level when it matures. (1) the rate of R & D expenditure continues to decrease, and may stabilize at 15% after maturity. From 2021 to 2023, the company's new product R & D investment continued, and the R & D expense rate was high; from 2023 to 2030, the company's major products were commercialized in turn, and there was a trend of renewal and iteration, with a steady increase in R & D costs and a steady decline in cost rates, which may eventually be maintained at 15%. (2) the sales cost increases, and the sales expense rate may stabilize at 25% when it matures. From 2021 to 2025, robots in the company's five major departments may be commercialized one after another, and the cost of sales continues to rise, but with the growth of income, the expense rate tends to decline. After 2026, the existing five major plates of robots have been commercialized, and the sales expense rate has entered a relatively stable stage of 25%. (3) the management cost increases steadily, and the expense rate continues to decline. We believe that with the possible equity incentive policy in 2022, the management cost will increase significantly. After 2022, with the commercial demand of new pipelines and new products, the management cost will increase steadily and the management expense rate will continue to decline.

Based on the above assumptions, we draw the conclusion that the return net profit of the company from 2021 to 2030 is-4.85,9.27,9.33,6.35,2.19,0.95,4.40,9.32,12.42 and 1.714 billion yuan respectively.

Profit forecast and valuation

Based on the above assumptions, we estimate that the total operating income of the company from 2021 to 2023 is 0.05x066max RMB 516 million, an increase of 6300%, 1275% and 682% respectively over the same period last year; the net profit returned to the home is-4.85Compare 927pm RMB933 million, respectively, and the corresponding EPS is-0.51Compare RMB0.97Compare 0.97 yuan. Using the DCF model, it is calculated that the enterprise value of the company is about 39.7 billion RMB, which is about 49 billion Hong Kong dollars per RMB 0.81.It is the first time that the company has been given an "overweight" rating.

Risk hints: the risk of less than expected product approval and commercialization; the risk of increased competition in the surgical robot industry; the risk of poor iteration of product updates; the risk of poor policy openness or excessive price cuts