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获“股神”持续加仓,年内股价已翻倍,西方石油还能继续涨吗?

With the “stock god” continuing to increase its positions, the stock price has already doubled during the year. Can Occidental Petroleum continue to rise?

富途資訊 ·  Mar 18, 2022 21:41

Since the beginning of this year, due to the rise in international oil prices and other factors, the share price of Western oil has soared, and the increase has doubled during the year. As of Thursday's close, Western Oil closed up 9.47% at $58.01 a share, with a total market capitalization of $54.1 billion.

It doubled during the year and was repeatedly increased by the stock gods. What are the investment opportunities for Western oil?

With a cumulative increase of 18.1 million shares, Buffett said, "buy as much as you can."

From March 14 to 16, Buffett's Berkshire increased its position in Western Oil for three consecutive days, totaling 18.1 million shares, with an average purchase price of $54.41 per share, involving $985 million, or about 6.254 billion yuan, according to SEC documents.

This is Buffett's third major increase in the company since March:

From March 2 to 4, Berkshire increased its position in more than 61.35 million Western oil common shares at an average price of $50.88 per share, at a cost of about $3.122 billion (19.816 billion yuan).

From March 9 to 11, Berkshire increased its position in more than 27.1 million Western oil common shares at an average price of $56.59 per share, at a cost of about $1.534 billion (9.738 billion yuan).

At present, Berkshire's cumulative stake in western oil has reached 136.4 million shares, accounting for 14.6% of the total number of western oil shares in circulation; at Thursday's closing price, the position is worth about $7.9 billion. Western oil has become Berkshire's ninth largest stock.

Buffett said in an interview that he was bullish on Western oil.

I read every number in the financial report. Vicki Hollub, CEO of Western Oil, is running the company in the right way. We'll start buying on Monday and buy as much as we can.

It is worth noting that Buffett said in the annual shareholder letter not long ago that there was "almost nothing we were excited about" in the stock market. At this time, it is a high-profile increase in Western Oil, which also makes the stock attract a lot of attention.

The financial report is eye-catching, and the western oil is basically good.

Occidental Petroleum is an American multinational company, founded in 1920, mainly engaged in oil and gas exploration and development, chemical business and natural gas transportation, including the United States, the Middle East, North Africa and South America, and is the fourth largest oil and gas company in the United States.

The company reported better-than-expected results last month. Net sales of Q4 were $8.01 billion, up 139.25% from a year earlier, beating analysts' estimates of $7.39 billion; the company's earnings per share were $1.48, 33.33% higher than the expected $1.11.

For the whole of 2021, the return on free cash flow of western oil companies exceeded 20%, which is the ratio of the company's expected free cash flow per share to the stock price. The higher the ratio, the more attractive the investment. Because it shows that investors pay less for each unit of free cash flow.

Picture Source: Western Petroleum IR official website

Western Oil has been saddled with high debt as a result of its acquisition of Anadarko in 2019, but because of strong oil prices, the company has been paying down its debt quickly, which is expected to fall from $25 billion in 2021 to $20 billion in 2022. This will keep the company's full-year interest expenses below $1 billion.

In addition, the company announced an increase in dividend, which will increase the quarterly dividend from $0.01to $0.13 per share, and a $3 billion share buyback program, enough to buy back 7 per cent of the company's outstanding shares. The above two projects are expected to be completed by 2022.

What do you think of Wall Street?

Western oil has strengthened this year, thanks in large part to higher oil prices. Brent crude reached a new high of $139 a barrel this month, and US Oil broke through the $130 mark at one point.

For the future trend of oil prices, Goldman Sachs Group continues to sing long. Through the interpretation of fundamentals and the market, Goldman Sachs Group locked in his spot price forecast for Brent crude oil to $120 a barrel in the second quarter of 2022 and is expected to rise further to $135a barrel in the second half of 2022.

Pierre Indurain, known as the god of crude oil trading, thinks the price of crude oil is expected to rise to $200 a barrel by the end of the year, about double its current level.

Higher oil prices help improve the performance of oil companies and generate considerable free cash flow, which can be used for regular dividends, special dividends and share buybacks. Professional analysts say that many multinational oil companies are reluctant to increase capital expenditure because this year's new energy policy is bad for traditional energy. They are only willing to pay dividends and buy back shares. This is also one of the reasons why Western oil and other oil stocks have become popular recently.

Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley and Morgan Stanley have raised their target prices for Western oil to $35, $43 and $50, respectively. But Western oil closed Thursday at $58.01, exceeding Wall Street's target price.

01.pngDo you think Western oil will continue to rise?

What do you think of Buffett's operation of increasing his position in Western Oil many times?

Welcome to leave a message for discussion in the comments area.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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