This report is read as follows:
The company's performance is in line with expectations, and the 2.0 strategy is in a period of transformation and deepening. Although it is under short-term pressure, the cost of obtaining customers is reduced and customer accumulation and expansion is expected to bring performance growth in the long run.
Summary:
Maintain the "overweight" rating and lower the target price to HK $34.32. According to the company's current strategic adjustment, the profit forecast for 2022 and 2023 will be lowered, and the profit forecast for 2024 will be added. It is estimated that the income of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 77.59,86.72 and 9.995 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit will be-11.78 (- 1.23,9.06) and-423 million yuan respectively. Using the SOTP valuation method, the target price was lowered to HK $34.32, corresponding to 6 times PS for medical services and 3 times PS for health services in 2022.
In 2021, the performance was in line with expectations, revenue grew steadily, and the proportion of revenue from medical services increased. In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 7.334 billion yuan, an increase of 7.0% over the same period last year, of which medical service revenue accounted for 31.2%, a year-on-year change of + 0.3pps. Gross profit margin in 2021 is 23.3%, year-on-year change-3.8pct, mainly due to the company's initiative to launch hook products, short-term impact on the gross profit structure. In addition, with the comprehensive promotion of strategy 2.0, the company's cost-side control has achieved initial results. In the second half of 2021, the cost rate decreased by 7% month-on-month, and marketing expenses and management expenses decreased by about 20%.
The habit of Internet medical users continued to consolidate, and the number of company users and paid households remained high.
As of December 31, 2021, the company continued to expand the number of users by virtue of high-quality medical services, with a total of 420 million registered users, an increase of 11.9 percent over the same period last year, 38 million households with fees paid, an increase of 21.9 percent from the previous month, and a cumulative consultation volume of 1.27 billion, an increase of 26.4 percent over the same period last year.
The deepening of the strategy has yielded results, reduced customer acquisition costs, and focused on strengthening services and experience. The company's strategy has gradually shifted from C-side to B-side, and has achieved remarkable results. By the end of 2021, the number of enterprises served by the company reached 520, the number of users covering enterprise employees and customers exceeded 1 million, the number of LTM-paying households exceeded 38 million, the payment rate increased by 19.1%, and the ARPU value remained stable at 190,200 yuan. Considering the large number of potential users and the comprehensive formation of Internet medical habits, the company is expected to have a lot of room for improvement in the number of paid users and ARPU value in the future, leading to a breakthrough in medical service revenue.
Risk hint: the promotion of online medical business is not as expected, the competition of Internet medical treatment is intensified, and the opening and landing of Internet medical policy is not as expected.