Short-term performance is under pressure, long-term multi-business coordinated development, maintain "overweight" rating
The company achieved a total revenue of 506 million yuan in 2021, down 28.8% from the same period last year, and a net profit of 43 million yuan, down 27.7% from the same period last year. 2021Q4 realized revenue of 105 million yuan, down 53.1% from the same period last year, and realized net profit of-14 million yuan. At present, the company has formed a strong internal synergy operation mode, such as customized brand meat, ham, characteristic meat products and so on. Due to the loss of the brand meat business, we downgrade the profit forecast for 2022-2023 and add the profit forecast for 2024. it is estimated that the net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.0,1.40 and 200 million yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 0.11,0.14,0.21 yuan. the current stock price corresponds to 45.7,34.2,23.2 times of PE. With the release of production capacity, improved channel layout and diversified consumption scenarios, the company is still in a period of rapid development, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
The decline in revenue is mainly due to a large decline in brand meat business.
The decline in 2021Q4 revenue is mainly due to a large decline in brand meat business. In 2021, the company's ham business still grew steadily: (1) from a product point of view, ham revenue in 2021 increased by 37.3% year-on-year to 183 million yuan; traditional meat products fell 15.7% year-on-year to 98.33 million yuan; and brand meat fell 57.9% to 178 million yuan. The tonnage price of brand meat products declined under the influence of the decline in pig prices, resulting in losses in the brand meat business, while the ham business continued to grow steadily with the expansion of channels. (2) from the perspective of sub-channels: the company's online channels and KA circulation channels have increased steadily, increasing by 4.9% and 32.3% respectively compared with the same period last year in 2021; hotel catering, food processing and direct marketing (group purchase) channels have all declined. Looking forward to 2022, the pig cycle or inflection point, and the current company's high-priced meat inventory is low, brand meat business may be improved.
The pressure on performance is mainly due to the large loss of brand meat business.
The profit decline of 2021Q4 company is mainly due to the large loss of brand meat, the increase of e-commerce flow fee and the increase of employee salary. For the whole year, affected by the decline in pig prices and high prices of meat in stock in 2021, the gross profit margins of ham, specialty meat products and brand meat fell by 4.67,11.6 and 22.2pct respectively. Looking forward to 2022, as pig prices usher in an inflection point and the company stores raw materials at low prices, the gross profit margin of each business may be improved; fees are expected to remain high during the new product promotion period. In the future, with the release of production capacity, the improvement of brand meat business and the enhancement of multi-business synergy, the company still has great potential for development.
Risk hints: macroeconomic fluctuation risk, market expansion is not as expected, raw material price fluctuation risk and so on.