Event
The company announced that KuaiBao achieved revenue of 5.93 billion in 2021, an increase of 17.2% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 1.386 billion, an increase of 92% over the same period last year. Of this total, Q4 made a profit of 413 million, an increase of 53.0% over the same period last year and 11.6% month-on-month growth, a record high.
Brief comment
The expansion of optical film contributed to the take-off of the annual performance, and the profit of Q4 reached a new record high. Since 2021, the company has steadily promoted the construction of 200 million square meters of optical film project, and six production lines have been delivered and put into production. The company's BOPET production capacity has increased by 54% in the past 21 years, and its leading position in the industry is stable. As the production capacity is gradually realized to support the rapid growth of performance. With the vigorous development of the downstream panel industry and photovoltaic industry, the boom of high-end BOPET materials continues, the high-quality core resources of the superposition company are gradually tilted to the high-margin new materials business, the high-end production capacity is steadily expanded, the product structure is continuously optimized, and the company's net profit increases year after year, from 121 million yuan in 2015 to 1.386 billion yuan in 2021, with a compound growth rate of 53%. Among them, Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 achieved a net profit of 2.76,3.28,3.70 and 413 million yuan respectively. The performance of Q4 increased by 11.6% month-on-month, and the profit in a single quarter reached an all-time high.
The products continue to be high-end and the production capacity reserves are sufficient. In 2021, the global market demand for BOPET film is more than 5 million tons, with a wide range of applications. China has gradually become the most important production base and consumer market for global polyester film products, and the production capacity of polyester film ranks first in the world. As an industry leader, the company has been carefully cultivated BOPET, the existing BOPET production capacity of 860000 tons, the market share of polyester film ranks first in the world for three consecutive years. Under the trend of the application of the new generation of information technology, the company is far-sighted, seize the opportunity, vigorously layout the field of new materials, and greatly improve the variety, quantity and quality of high-end products. Compared with the company's main conventional polyester film business before 2019, the company has continued to make efforts in the high-end BOPET field in recent years. In 2021, the company successfully put 300000 tons of production capacity into the 200 million flat optical film project, doubled the production capacity of new materials, and has gradually begun to consolidate. The current gross profit ratio of high-end materials has exceeded 75%, and it is expected that another 200000 tons of functional film production capacity will be delivered in the first half of 22 years. Compared with the ordinary film, the gross profit margin of the new material polyester film is about 10% more than 20%. With the further product upgrade and production capacity expansion of the company's BOPET, the cyclical impact of the ordinary film industry on the company is gradually weakened, and the company's long-term growth momentum is sufficient, and the performance can be realized.
Benchmarking optimizes costs, and profitability is effectively guaranteed. The company's main raw material PTA has a high correlation with oil prices. In 2021, the average prices of cost-side PTA and MEG were 4723 yuan and 5252 yuan per ton respectively, up 28.0% and 36.8% respectively over the same period last year. The price center of crude oil has continued to move up since 2022. As of March 11, 22, the average PTA price at the cost side was 6080 yuan / ton, up 38.1% from a year earlier. The average price of Meg was 5315 yuan / ton, down 4.1% from the same period last year.
Under the pressure of rising raw material prices, the company controls raw material costs to a certain extent through benchmarking, and with the help of higher raw material inventory scale, under the background of rising oil prices and rising current prices of raw materials, the actual raw material cost is relatively low; at the same time, at the beginning of 22, the company has appropriately raised the price by 10% to downstream customers, and the control of the superimposed cost side will effectively ensure the profitability of the company.
Profit forecast and valuation: considering the gradual launch of new production capacity of high-end functional film in 22 and 23 years, it is estimated that the net profit of the company in 2021,2022 and 2023 is 1.39 billion yuan, 2.02 billion yuan and 2.67 billion yuan respectively, EPS is 1.21,1.74 yuan and 2.31 yuan respectively, PE is 16.4X, 11.4X, 8.6x respectively, with a target price of 38.8 yuan per share, with remarkable growth and maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk analysis: the project production is not as expected, and the downstream demand is not as expected.