Report guide
The company's annual report revealed that in 2021, the operating income was 1.269 billion yuan, an increase of 10.22%, and the net profit returned to the mother was 182 million yuan, an increase of 12.86%, slightly lower than expected.
Main points of investment
Optimize income structure and improve profitability
Integrated logistics achieved revenue of 701 million yuan (+ 22.22%); supply chain distribution business achieved revenue of 561 million yuan (+ 0.25%). The growth rate and proportion of integrated logistics revenue increased significantly, and the income structure was adjusted and optimized. The 21-year gross profit margin is 26.5% (+ 2.4pct). 21Q4 achieved an income of 340 million yuan (+ 4.1%); its net profit was 20 million yuan, down 24.1% from the same period last year, mainly due to the active contraction of the distribution business.
The production progress of the second phase of Jiacheng International Port is not as expected, and the performance of the second phase of Jiacheng International Port is expected to grow rapidly in 2022. Due to the rise of raw materials, repeated epidemics, government acceptance procedures and other reasons, the progress of production is not as expected. It is expected to be put into operation in the first half of 22 years, as one of the largest fully automated unmanned intelligent three-dimensional warehouses in the world. The commissioning of the project will promote the vigorous development of the company's cross-border e-commerce logistics business. In terms of downstream customers, the company deepens cooperation with Ali e-commerce platform, actively develops new customers such as Shein and Lazada, and lays the foundation for the development of cross-border e-commerce logistics services, and its performance is expected to grow rapidly in 2022.
Automotive industry chain logistics and duty-free logistics provide double growth points for the company's medium-and long-term development. The company vigorously expands the logistics business in the automotive field, copying the business model of the integration of the whole supply chain to the auto parts business. Now it has reached cooperation with BAIC Zhongdu Logistics and Guangzhou Automobile Group parts suppliers.
At the same time, the company (Hainan) multi-function intelligent logistics center project has been put into construction, is expected to complete the main project this year, logistics business advantages to further expand the field of duty-free logistics. As the largest international logistics center in Hainan, the company will also fully enjoy the development dividend of the outlying island duty-free market under the epidemic.
Profit forecast and valuation: adjust the profit forecast to maintain the "buy" rating company's main track cross-border e-commerce industry to maintain a high demeanor. Ka-shing fully benefits the industry dividend by virtue of its excellent location factors and operational ability. Taking into account the project construction period, adjust the profit forecast, it is estimated that the company's revenue in 2022-24 will be RMB 2.388, 2.909 billion, with an increase of 38.87%, 35.53%, 21.78%, 3.02%, 433,549, and 65.47%, 43.60%, 26.67%, 35% and 1.76%, 2.53 and 3.20 yuan, respectively, after dilution. The current market capitalization corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.93, 10.40 and 8.21X, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: slow speed of project construction; decline of cross-border e-commerce prosperity; loss of key customers