Metal enclosure bibcock, BIPV industry pioneer. The company has been deeply engaged in the field of middle and high-end metal building enclosure system and environmental protection for 20 years, with a total engineering performance of more than 2500 and a construction area of 200 million square meters. it is the first professional enclosure structure company listed on the motherboard in China. The company's operating income increased from 1.696 billion yuan to 3.153 billion yuan from 2016 to 2020, with a CAGR of about 16.8%, but the return net profit CAGR of the same period was about-3.2%, mainly due to rising raw materials and labor costs in recent years, the progress of the project in 2020 was affected by the epidemic, and a higher proportion of bad debt losses in 2021.
Metal enclosure in the high-end market experience, leading market share. In the middle and high-end market of metal enclosure system, downstream enterprises pay more attention to brand awareness and successful cases, and the degree of sensitivity to price is relatively low, so it is difficult for new competitors to enter. The company takes the lead in the domestic metal enclosure market share, accurately locates the high-end public-industrial market, has accumulated rich experience, and relies on the differentiated product-service advantage to maintain strong competitiveness. In 2020, the company's metal enclosure system revenue is about 2.7 billion yuan, leading the high-end market share.
BIPV accelerates to replace BAPV, and the annual market capacity of BIPV2025 is expected to reach more than 100 billion yuan. Since 2021, various localities have continued to introduce promotion policies, and the Energy Bureau has issued articles to promote distributed photovoltaic and put forward the "5432" goal of photovoltaic roofing. BIPV policy faces an important breakthrough. We estimate that the total installed scale potential of BIPV and the corresponding market in 2025 are 27GW and 106.4 billion yuan respectively, with broad market prospects.
Combined with Longji shares, plus code distributed photovoltaic layout. Longji shares in Saint shares to create a precedent for the combination of "photovoltaic + construction" in the industry, combining the roof design and enclosure advantages of Saint shares with the manufacturing advantages of BIPV products of Longji shares, jointly open up large-scale public construction market and photovoltaic product application scenarios, seize market share and exert scale effect, which is expected to further enhance the performance of the company.
Profit forecast and valuation: on the one hand, due to the influence of bad debt provision, we downgrade our 21-year profit forecast; on the other hand, the photovoltaic and BIPV policies continue to land, and the company's BIPV business development is likely to exceed expectations. We raise our profit forecasts for 22 and 23 years. We estimate that the EPS for 2021-2023 will be 0.06,0.77,1.09 yuan respectively, and the PE corresponding to the closing price on March 14 will be 859.9, 62.6and 44.0times, respectively. Maintain the "prudent overweight" rating.
Risk hint: the risk that the BIPV market space is lower than expected, the project schedule is not as expected, the price of raw materials such as silicon and steel increases significantly, and the intensified competition leads to a substantial decline in BIPV profit level.
