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富途研选 | 北上资金买了5000多亿,淡市中浮盈60%怎么做到的?

Futu Research | With capital from Beishang, which bought more than 500 billion dollars, how was 60% of the net profit achieved in the off-market?

富途资讯 ·  Jul 11, 2018 17:47

Edited from Oriental Securities: "Smart Money"?-- restore the true face of Lukutong

Shanghai Stock Connect was launched on November 17, 2014, and Shenzhen Stock Connect was opened on December 5, 2016. Since the beginning of its opening, Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect have announced their daily net purchases, and at the same time, the daily target and number of holdings have been announced since March 17, 2017. Northward capital has floated by 30% so far, and it was once as high as 60% in January 18, which is regarded as "Smart Money" by the market.

The annual income exceeded 10%, and the floating profit was once as high as 60%.

The floating profit of the whole northward fund from November 14 to June 29, 18 was 32.6%.Under the assumption of a discount of 3%, the floating profit of the accounts of Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect is 27.0%, and the annualized income under the assumption of uniform Jiancang is close to 10.1%.Over the period from November 2014 to June 29, 2018, floating earnings peaked in January 18, with floating earnings at one point as high as 60%.

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With March 17, 17, 17 as the starting time, the cumulative net purchases of Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect were 185.5 billion, the market value of their holdings was 240.7 billion, and floating profits were 29.4%.By June 29, 18, the market capitalization of Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 673.1 billion, with a cumulative net purchase of 507.7 billion and a book surplus of 32.6%.

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Go northward to fundThere are two buying peaks throughout the period.

One is from May to October in 17 years, which to a certain extent spawned the blue-chip white horse market; the other is due to the inclusion of A shares in the MSCI, Lukutong has bought a lot of net purchases since April this year.

Go northward to fundShareholding "fingerprint": low PE, large market capitalization, fond of consumption and finance

The northward capital holding plate is concentrated on the main board, and the industry level is focused on consumption and finance. During the period from March 17 to June 18, the net purchases of white electricity and spirits were the highest.And the net purchases accounted for 1.7% and 1.3% of the turnover of the respective industry sectors of A shares respectively, much higher than the overall 0.22%, which to a certain extent spawned the relevant sector market. Since its opening, the style of northward capital holding has not changed, and it is still characterized by low PE and large market capitalization. At the same time, there is no preference for PB and growth.

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Figure 26: changes in industry shareholding from March 17, 17 to June 29, 18 (%)

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Tracking: "Smart Money": "highest net purchase" stock selection method performs well

At the monthly level, select the 30 stocks with the highest net purchases of funds going northward last month and hold them for one month. From April 17 to July 6, 18, you will be able to get a return of 31.5%, with an excess return of 33.6% relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. At the same time, the monthly income in 10 of the 14 months is higher than that of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300.

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For more wonderful content, please mark: the past period of the rich way research election.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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