Investment highlight
Covering Shen Hao Technology (300853) for the first time, the industry is rated to outperform, with a target price of 43.18 yuan, corresponding to 27 times PE in 22 years. The reasons are as follows:
The electric power robot has broad space and high prosperity, and the company has outstanding ability to deepen layout and technical channels.
Inspection robots have obvious advantages over traditional manpower and meet the requirements of the development of smart / digital grid. we expect the penetration rate to increase from less than 10% in 20 years to 20-30% in 25 years. The total annual market size in 21-25 exceeds 20 billion yuan. The company has core competitiveness in the field of power robots, leading in scale and profitability. in recent years, the company continues to strengthen the functional improvement and innovation and upgrading of products in the electric power field. On the one hand, it strengthens the inspection function, launches the inspection robot in the extremely cold area and arranges the underwater inspection robot. On the other hand, with the extension from patrol inspection to operation function, 1-3Q21 switch room operation robots have realized small batch orders and delivered 10 units, and at the end of the 21st year, more than 200 million yuan of orders have been received from Zhejiang and Jiangsu, and live work on distribution lines is also steadily advancing research and development. In addition, the company continues to improve the service system and strengthen market extensibility, and the proportion of non-provincial business has increased to 40.19% in the past 20 years. We expect the company's electric robot revenue to reach 39% CAGR in 20-23.
The application of the industry continues to explore in depth and breadth, and the market coverage and growth space are getting wider and wider. The company actively seize the market opportunity, based on the bottom common technology, research and development of epidemic prevention, rail transit line inspection, train bottom inspection, explosion-proof inspection robot and other applications in public health, rail transit, petrochemical and other fields, to open up a variety of growth points. Based on the domestic rail transit operation mileage and vehicle data at the end of the 20th year, we estimate that the stock market space of rail transit inspection and vehicle bottom inspection robots is about 40 billion yuan. The company has recently achieved its first breakthrough, financing new production capacity and making large-scale development of the rail transit market. We expect that the company's non-electric robots are expected to contribute incremental performance and become a new driver of growth in 23 years.
The business of electric power fixed-end monitoring and testing equipment has grown steadily. With the increase of the type and quantity of power equipment, the more complex power system and the gradual improvement of intelligent requirements, the demand for power monitoring and control equipment continues to be strong, and we expect the company's related business to maintain steady growth.
What is the biggest difference between us and the market? The market is mainly concerned about the bidding situation of power robots and the change of market share; we are more optimistic about the overall layout of the company's mobile and fixed end monitoring and testing in the power field, and the advantages of technology and channels form a strong support. in addition, the company accelerates its expansion in the non-electric field based on the common underlying technology.
Potential catalyst: electric robot and online monitoring bidding volume, rail robot order breakthrough.
Profit forecast and valuation
We estimate that the company's 21-year-old EPS will be 1.22,1.60,2.12 yuan respectively, and the CAGR will be 32%. For the first time, it gives the "outperform industry" rating, giving the company a target market capitalization of 6.3 billion yuan and a target price of 43.18 yuan, which still has 29.4% room to rise compared with the current stock price. The current stock price corresponds to 22max, 23 years, 21amp, 16 times PE, and the target price corresponds to 22max, 23years, 27max, 20 times PE.
Risk
The investment in smart grid is lower than expected, the downstream customers are relatively concentrated, and the competition in the industry is intensified.