Buffett

Copy to the bottom of the famous saying

Fight against corruption when the stock market soars and withdraw from the stock market as soon as possible; when the stock market falls sharply, fight terrorism and take advantage of the opportunity to take advantage of the bottom; when the stock market falls, the more you buy, the more you buy, instead of cutting the meat and leaving the market.

Bottom-copying campaign

Buffett has experienced four stock market slumps in his life, namely, 1973, 1987, 2000 and 2008. Every year or two before the stock market crash, Buffett exited early, not participating in the last wave of the market at all, but watching others fight foolishly in the stock market. When the stock market fell through, he leisurely entered the market on a large scale to pick up the stocks that had been favored.

Take the 1987 stock market crash as an example, when the stock market plummeted 36% from August to October 1987, the stock market fell and rebounded so fast that Buffett could only regret that he had no time to "let the bullet fly." Buffett is still very calm in the face of investment opportunities that have come and gone in a hurry, because he believes that the next opportunity will come again, as long as he waits patiently. Buffett's lesson this time is: sometimes the slump comes and goes in a hurry, so you can't take advantage of the bottom, so be calm about it, and don't blame yourself or even get out of control by trying to seize every opportunity.

The opportunity came in the second year after the slump. Buffett began to buy a lot of Coca-Cola Company. In 1989, he bought Coca-Cola Company 1 billion US dollars in two years. After continuing to increase his holdings in 1994, the total investment reached 1.3 billion US dollars. The market value of Buffett's shares in Coca-Cola Company rose to $13.3 billion at the end of 1997, making a tenfold profit in 10 years.

Experience and lessons

Buffett took three main measures when the stock market plummeted: first, select the investment industry. Buy as long as the net worth far exceeds the stock price. The second is to do the value band. He first calculates the intrinsic value of each share through the overall value of the listed company, and then compares it with the stock price. Buy if the intrinsic value is much higher than the stock price, and then sell when the stock price is high. The third is to invest only with spare money. Even in the face of Daniel stocks that are expected to rise 100-fold in the next 10 years, Buffett insists on investing only with spare money and waiting for opportunities if he loses money.

Peter Lynch

Copy to the bottom of the famous saying

The historical law of stock market volatility tells us that all sharp falls will pass and the stock market will always rise higher. Historical experience also shows that the sharp fall in the stock market is actually a good opportunity to release risks and create investment, and to buy stocks of very good companies at very low prices. But bottoming is not that simple. Instead of constantly copying the "bottom" and being trapped, it is not too late to intervene after the bottom appears.

Bottom-copying campaign

When the US stock market crashed in 1987, many people went from millionaires to abject poverty, had a nervous breakdown and even committed suicide. At that time, American securities superstar Peter Lynch managed more than $10 billion of the Magellan fund, which lost 18% of its net asset value, or $2 billion, in one day. Lynch, like all open-end fund managers, has only one option: sell stocks. Lynch had to sell all his shares in order to cope with the unusually large redemption.

More than a year later, Peter Lynch recalled that he was still scared. "at that moment, I was really not sure whether it was the end of the world, or whether we were about to fall into a severe Great Depression." or is it that things are not getting so bad, just that Wall Street is coming to an end? "

After that, Peter Lynch continued to experience many stock market slumps, but still achieved very successful performance.

Experience and lessons

First, don't sell all the shares cheaply because of panic. If you sell desperately in the midst of a stock market crash, your selling price tends to be very low. The market in October 1987 was frightening, but there was no need to sell the stock on this day or the next. The stock market began to rise steadily in November of that year. By June 1988, the market had rebounded by more than 400 points, or more than 23%.

Second, have firm courage to hold good company stocks.

Third, dare to buy good company shares at a low price. A slump is the best opportunity to make a lot of money: great wealth is often made in such a stock market crash. A slump is a good opportunity to make a lot of money.

Graham.

Copy to the bottom of the famous saying

First, never lose money; second, never forget the first rule.

Bottom-copying campaign

Graham is Buffett's mentor, the father of securities analysis, and the ancestor of value investment. In September 1929, the Dow rose as high as 381, and then began to fall. On October 29th, the Dow Jones index fell 12%, which was described as the "worst day" in the 112-year history of the New York Stock Exchange. It was the most famous "Black Tuesday" in history.

In November 1929, the Dow fell as low as 198 and then stabilized and rebounded. By March 1930, it had risen to 286 points, a rebound of 43%. So many investors think the worst is over and the stock market is about to turn upside down. Graham felt the same way, so he began to go to the bottom.

He copied all the good stocks that were very cheap in terms of valuation, and in order to achieve a higher yield, he also leveraged the margin. But the stock market rebounded until April and then plummeted, with the Dow falling 33% in 1930, while Graham's fund lost as much as 50.5%. By July 1932, the Dow had hit a low of 41, down 89% from its peak of 381, while Graham's fund lost 78% over the same period, a super-bear market that nearly wiped out his fortune.

Graham later made a comeback and wrote the investment bible "Securities Analysis" and "Smart Investor", summing up an eternal basic principle of value investment: margin of safety.

Experience and lessons

Safety first, profit second.

Bill Miller

Copy to the bottom of the famous saying

I often remind my analysts that your information about the company is 100% representative of the company's past, while the stock valuation is 100% dependent on the future.

Bottom-copying campaign

In the 15 years from 1991 to 2005, the Legg Mason value trust fund managed by Miller beat the S & P 500 index continuously, created the most brilliant performance record of fund managers in history, and was praised as the most successful fund manager of this era. However, in just one year, the honor was ruined by him himself.

During the subprime crisis, many previously very good companies' stocks fell sharply in succession, and Miller thought investors were overreacting, so he bought against the market. He thought the crisis was a great opportunity to make money, but it turned out to be the worst bear market since the Great Depression. Although his reverse investment decisions over the past 15 years turned out to be correct, he failed miserably this time. Miller's stock list is like a list of martyrs in this crisis: AIG, Bear Stearns, Freddie Mac, Citigroup Inc, Washington Mutual, etc.

"I failed to properly estimate the seriousness of this liquidity crisis from the beginning," Miller, 58, said in an interview in 2008. Although Miller used to make money from market panic, he said he didn't expect the crisis to be so serious and fundamental problems so deep that all the high-quality listed companies that were once the market leader collapsed. "I'm still inexperienced," Miller said. "it's terrible that every decision to buy stocks is wrong. "

Experience and lessons

"any extraordinary portfolio can succeed within a certain period of time because of the insurance nature of misplaced prices. The market's estimate of this future number is wrong. By comparing the market, the valuation of the company and our own valuation of the company, we use a combination of multiple factors to find out the price mismatch. "

Soros.

Copy to the bottom of the famous saying

The history of the world economy is a series based on illusions and lies. The way to gain wealth is to recognize the illusion, invest in it, and then quit the game before the illusion is known to the public.

Bottom-copying campaign

Soros thought before 1987 that the Japanese stock market was in a huge bubble and shorted Japanese stocks, resulting in a fiasco. The Japanese stock market was bullish in 1989. Soros advocated in the Wall Street commentary that the US stock market would be strong and the Japanese stock market would collapse, and the result was just the opposite: the US stock market crashed, but the Japanese stock market was strong.

In September 1987, Soros transferred billions of dollars of investment from Tokyo to Wall Street. However, the first major collapse was not the Japanese stock market, but Wall Street in the United States.

On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones average plunged 508 points in New York, setting a record at that time. In the following week, the New York stock market fell all the way. On the other hand, the Japanese stock market is relatively strong. Soros decided to sell several large shares of long-term shares.

After capturing the relevant information, other traders took the opportunity to smash down the sold stocks, reducing the cash discount on futures by 20%. Soros lost about $650 million to $800m in the Wall Street crash. The collapse caused quantum fund's net worth to fall by 26.2%, far more than the 17% decline in the u.s. stock market, and Soros became the biggest loser of the disaster.

In the final analysis, Soros's fiasco was caused by speculative psychology, speculating on the timing of the market and went to a situation of huge losses.

Experience and lessons

The mistake is not shameful, the shameful thing is that the mistake is obvious and not to be corrected. Take risks, beyond reproach. But at the same time, remember, don't put all your eggs in one basket. It doesn't matter whether you are right or wrong. The key is how much you lose when you make a mistake and how much you earn when you judge correctly. "

Philip Fisher

Copy to the bottom of the famous saying

You have to learn to spend a lot of time studying, and you are in no hurry to buy. In a continuously falling market environment, don't buy unfamiliar stocks too quickly.

Bottom-copying campaign

In 1929, the US stock market was in a crazy bull market before the crash, but Fisher found that the outlook for many American industries was unstable and there was a serious bubble in the stock market. In August 1929, he submitted a statement to senior bank executives that "the worst big short market in 25 years will unfold." "the report. This can be said to be the most amazing stock market forecast in Fisher's life, but it is a pity that Fisher is "bearish and long". "I can't help being bewildered by the power of the stock market," he said. So look everywhere for some relatively cheap stocks, because they have not yet risen in place. "American stocks suddenly collapsed in October 1929, and Fisher was not spared. He suffered heavy losses in the stock market crash, and Fisher lost all his money.

Experience and lessons

Fisher is beginning to understand that the main factor determining stock prices is not the current Pmax E, but the expected Pamp E in the next few years. He said that if you can develop your ability to determine the possible performance of a stock in the next few years within a reasonable upper and lower limit, you can find a key that will not only avoid losses, but also make a huge profit.