Agricultural and animal husbandry enterprises with the development of the whole industry chain.
The company is building an integrated business model with "pig" as the core, "feed, pig raising, food" as the main business, and "bio-pharmaceutical, raw material trade, agricultural Internet" as the supporting business. In 2021, the company produced about 3.246 million pigs (+ 237.00% compared with the same period last year) and sold 2.0815 million tons of feed in the first half of the year (+ 33.43% compared with the same period last year).
Pig production capacity continues to be eliminated, and feed raw material prices are running at a high level.
At the end of January 2022, the national stock of fertile sows is 42.9 million, which is still higher than the normal quantity of 41 million. Under the background of strong supply and weak demand, the production capacity is expected to continue to be eliminated, and pig prices are expected to run at a low level. In 2021, China's feed output was 293 million tons, + 16.10% compared with the same period last year. Due to the persistently high price of feed raw materials, feed enterprises are still facing greater cost pressure.
Feed business has developed in an all-round way, and pig farming is a new force.
1 feed plate: the company is an expert in the field of pig feed subdivision, and takes advantage of the opportunity to develop poultry, aquatic products, ruminants and so on. By the end of 2021, the company's feed production capacity is about 7 million tons, and it is expected that feed sales will grow rapidly in the future. 2 Pig breeding sector: the company has a complete breeding system. As of March 2022, the company has about 320000 sows in stock (can reproduce + reserve), with sufficient production capacity; the company plans to have a total fattening ratio of 50% and 75% respectively for fattening pigs in 2023. Since listing, about 1.498 billion yuan has been invested in pig farm project construction. By the end of 2021H1, pig farm construction / reconstruction and expansion projects are under construction of 817 million yuan (year-on-year + 11.61%), with great potential for capacity release in the future.
Profit forecast and investment advice: pig farming sector revenue is expected to continue to grow, profit margins with the rebound of pig prices and costs decline or gradually improve. Feed business has entered the stage of volume-profit rise, and food, veterinary drugs, animal protection and other businesses continue to grow. Taking all things into consideration, we expect the company to achieve revenue of 14.608 Universe 201.8228,439 million in 2021-2023, net profit of-11.07 pesto 724 pesos of 911 million, and EPS of-1.64 pesque of 1.07 gamma, 1.35 yuan respectively, with the first coverage and a "overweight" rating.
Risk hints: epidemic risks such as African classical swine fever and bird flu, continued low pig prices, rising raw material prices, policy changes, lower-than-expected pig production risks, etc.