Pay attention to production capacity and maintain the rating of "increasing holdings"
In 2021, the company achieved an income of 1.27 billion yuan, an increase of 10.2% over the same period last year; the net profit returned to its mother was 180 million yuan, an increase of 12.9% over the same period last year, and profitability has not yet been fully released. As the production progress of Ka-shing International Port is relatively slow, we have lowered the company's warehouse income and gross profit margin forecast for the 23rd year, and the annual EPS of 22-23-24 is estimated to be 1.45Unix 1.82exp 2.20 yuan (without considering the dilution of convertible bonds). Comparable company's 22-year Wind unanimously expects the average PE to be 15.4x, taking into account the high boom in cross-border e-commerce logistics and the company's capacity expansion plans, giving 22-year 20x PE (30% premium to industry valuation), updating the target price to 29.10 yuan (previous value: 40.00 yuan), maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Weak revenue growth superimposed cost pressure, 4Q21 profit fell 24% year on year in 2021, the company realized revenue of 1.27 billion yuan, an increase of 10.2% over the same period last year; gross profit margin was 26.5%, an increase of 2.4 pct over the same period last year; and home net profit was 180 million yuan, an increase of 12.9% over the same period last year. Among them, 4Q21 achieved an income of 340 million yuan, an increase of 4.1% over the same period last year, with weak revenue growth; a gross profit margin of 18.5%, a decline of 2.0pct over the same period last year, resulting in greater cost pressure; and a net profit of 20 million yuan, down 24.1% from the same period last year.
Proposed issuance of convertible bonds for financing, capacity-driven profitability
In September 2021, the company will raise an additional 130 million yuan from major shareholders. In October 2021, the company announced that it planned to issue convertible bonds to raise 1 billion yuan for the construction of cross-border e-commerce logistics centers and replenishment of liquidity. In addition to Nansha Tianyun bonded warehouse (120,000 square meters), the company Jiacheng International Port has started trial operation (the warehouse area is about 500,000 square meters), and gradually achieve import and export coordination. Due to the epidemic situation of COVID-19 and the complexity of the project, the production progress of the company's Jiacheng International Port is slow, which is a drag on the performance. At the same time, the company plans to invest in the international e-commerce port in the Greater Bay area (South China) and the Hainan Digital Intelligence Logistics Center to expand the layout of cross-border e-commerce business.
Pay attention to the pace of production capacity and maintain the rating of "increasing holdings"
Due to the slow progress in the commissioning of Ka Shing International Port, we have lowered our warehousing income and gross profit margin forecast for 23 years, and correspondingly lowered the forecast of return net profit to RMB 234,000,000 (former value: RMB 300,000,000), and introduced a 24-year forecast of RMB 354 million. Comparable company's 22-year Wind unanimously expects the average PE to be 15.4x, taking into account the high boom in cross-border e-commerce logistics and the company's capacity expansion plans, giving 22-year 20x PE (30% premium to industry valuation), updating the target price to 29.10 yuan (previous value: 40.00 yuan), maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: customer concentration risk, downstream boom risk, tax rate risk.