The government meeting set the economic growth rate, the real estate force may be indispensable, boosting the demand for glass at the completed end. Recently, the government work report set the target of GDP growth in 2022 at around 5.5%. At present, in addition to stepping up infrastructure efforts to expand domestic demand, real estate investment is also expected to become an important starting point, and real estate policy is expected to be further relaxed. From the perspective of local policies, Heze and Nanning have reduced the down payment ratio, and some cities such as Yanji and Anhui have introduced housing subsidy policies, and then Guangzhou has also lowered mortgage interest rates. at present, the real estate policy has been relaxed in dozens of cities.
At the same time, opinions on the supervision of national commercial housing pre-sale funds have been issued recently. after the pre-sale funds meet the regulatory quota requirements, the excess can be extracted and used by housing enterprises, which is conducive to the flexibility in the use of commercial housing pre-sale funds. the overstrict supervision of pre-sale funds in some places can play a corrective role. We believe that the gradual easing of funds for housing enterprises is conducive to the delivery of houses and boost the demand for glass at the end of completion.
Demand is gradually starting, prices are slightly higher than the same period last year, and inventories have risen sharply. Recently, the prices of manufacturers in some regions of North and East China are lower, while the shipments of some manufacturers in other regions are flexible. The downstream demand starts slowly, most of them have not yet returned to full load, and the problem of lack of orders still exists. In the later stage of the market, the float factory inventory is gradually under pressure, the inventory in the middle and lower reaches still needs time to digest, the rigid demand starts or appears slow, and the overall market is under pressure.
As of March 3, the national average price of white glass was 2428.11 yuan per ton, down 1.1% from the previous month and up 12.2% from the same period last year. The glass inventory weighed 4672 million cases, up 13.29% from last week and 41.28% from the same period last year. The price was slightly higher than the same period last year, but the inventory increased more.
Investment advice: the company cold repair production line put into production, output increase led to high income growth, and profit improvement after the company's financial expenses are expected to decline, further increase profits, we expect the company in 2021-2023 is expected to achieve a net profit of 9.01 pound 1.301 pound 1.407 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS 0.49x72x0.77 yuan per share, corresponding to 2.4x1.6 pound PE 1.5 times, to maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the decline in real estate investment, the rapid rise in raw material prices, and the progress of the new production line is not up to expectations.