Comments on the core point of view of corporate research and financial report
Business, retail, Internet e-commerce
Securities analyst: Zhang Junhao contact: Wang Chang
021-60933168-61761019
Zhangjh@guosen.com.cn wangchang@guosen.com.cnS0980517070001
Basic data
Investment rating buy (maintain)
Reasonable valuation is not applicable
Closing price 20.17 yuan
Total market capitalization / current market capitalization 8108max 3,953 million yuan
The highest / lowest price in 52 weeks is 40.99 pesque 19.73 yuan.
The average daily turnover in the past three months is 49.54 million yuan.
Market trend
Source: Wind, Guoxin Securities Economics Research Institute
Related research report
"Beauty make-up-comments on the three Quarterly report 605136-2021: steady growth, continuous acceleration of brand expansion and multi-platform layout"-- 2021-10-30
"Beauty make-up-comments on the three Quarterly report 605136-2020: profit performance is in line with expectations, Q4 e-commerce is expected to grow in peak season"-- 2020-11-02
"Beauty makeup-605136-in-depth report: beauty makeup operation leader, scale-based efficiency first"-- 2020-10-14
Performance: the profit grew steadily compared with the same period last year, and the effect of reducing cost and increasing efficiency was further shown. In 21 years, the revenue reached 4.155 billion yuan,-9.67% compared with the same period last year, and the return net profit was 411 million yuan, + 20.99% compared with the same period last year. The return net profit has achieved double-digit growth for eight consecutive years. The decline in revenue is mainly due to the change of revenue recognition mode caused by the transformation of some cooperative brands from distribution mode to generation operation mode. From a quarterly point of view, Q4 achieved revenue of 1.654 billion yuan in 21 years,-22.56% year-on-year, and net profit of 148 million yuan, + 0.96% of the same period last year.
Revenue split: emerging platforms are growing rapidly and e-commerce retail business gross profit margins are rising. Company revenue split: 1) Division of industry: 21 Tmall domestic / Tmall international / other revenue accounted for 89.27%, 3.95%, 6.78%, respectively, and revenue was-14.78%, 1.43%, 228.51%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The company still operates mainly on Tmall platform, and Douyin platform business has grown significantly in other businesses. 2) Sub-product: cosmetic care / other categories account for 97.50% Universe 2.50% Tran 3) Sub-region: domestic / overseas revenue share is 95.32% / 4.68% respectively. 4) Sub-sales model: e-commerce retail business / brand marketing operation business / others account for 93.19%, 5.22%, 1.60%, respectively, and revenue is-11.25%, 8.85%, 73.06%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The structural adjustment is mainly due to the transformation of some brands from e-commerce retail business model to brand marketing service mode.
Profitable operation: double increase of gross profit margin, continue to reduce cost and increase efficiency. The 21-year gross profit margin is 36.46%, year-on-year + 6.10pct, which is mainly due to the increase in gross profit margin brought about by the transformation of the business model of some cooperative brands (the distribution mode is changed to generation operation mode and switched to high gross profit service charge mode); the net profit margin is increased to 9.86%; the sales rate is + 3.53pct to 20.12% compared with the same period last year, which is mainly due to the retrospective adjustment of accounting policy. In terms of operating capacity, the 21-year inventory turnover days + 60.43 days to 143.60 days is mainly due to the expansion of brand business and increased stock preparation; the net operating cash flow is-134 million yuan,-176.39% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the increased pressure of business expansion.
Risk tips: the epidemic repeatedly affects demand; some cooperative brands terminate or change the mode of cooperation.
Investment advice: continue to reduce costs and increase efficiency, pay attention to the development of new brands and new platforms, and maintain the "buy" rating.
It is estimated that the 2022-2024 net profit from homing is 4.94 yuan 580,647 million yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 20.18%; diluted EPS=1.23/1.40/1.56 yuan, the current share price corresponds to PE=17/14/13x. As a head beauty operator, the company has deep multi-brand and multi-channel operation capabilities, specifically: 1) Brand cooperation: through independent brand incubation and external investment, brand incubation continues to expand the brand matrix, and brand incubation is making rapid progress. Has successfully incubated a number of own brands; 2) platform operation: continuous investment in emerging platforms such as Douyin and achieve rapid growth. With the increased governance of the Internet industry in the past 21 years and the slowdown in traffic growth, steady growth in performance has been achieved through full-category consumer insight, multi-year data models to promote platform diversification, cost reduction and efficiency improvement; in the medium to long term, the company is expected to expand new brands and categories on the basis of maintaining existing cooperative brand business, and platforms such as Douyin will strive to obtain new profit growth points, leading to continuous improvement of performance. Maintain a "buy" rating.