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微博(09898.HK)年报点评报告:行业短期波动 控制获客成本

Weibo (09898.HK) Annual Review Report: Short-term Fluctuations in the Industry Control Customer Acquisition Costs

國盛證券 ·  Mar 6, 2022 00:00

2021Q4 revenue is in line with expectations, while advertising is growing against the trend. Weibo Corp's 2021Q4 revenue was $616 million, up 20% from the same period last year and 16% at the exchange rate for the same period last year. Of this total, advertising revenue was $550 million, an increase of 21% over the same period last year. Value-added services reached US $65 million, an increase of 9 per cent over the same period last year. In 2021, Weibo Corp's total revenue reached US $2.26 billion, an increase of 34% over the same period last year, of which advertising revenue was US $1.98 billion, up 33% from the same period last year.

2021Q4 gross profit margin was 79%, compared with 83.4% in the same period last year. Sales, R & D and administrative expenses rose 25 per cent year-on-year to $305 million, mainly due to higher advertising costs and higher personnel costs. Non-GAAP 's operating margin was 36%, compared with 40% in the same period last year and 41% in the same period last year.

Non-GAAP 's net profit for the whole of 2021 was $720 million, with a net profit margin of 32 per cent, unchanged from the same period a year earlier.

Focus on the user frequency and control the cost of getting customers. Weibo Corp's MAU reached 573 million in December 2021, an increase of 52 million over the same period last year and unchanged from the previous month, of which about 95 per cent were mobile users. DAU reached 249 million, an increase of 25 million over the same period last year and 1 million from the previous month.

In terms of getting customers, Weibo Corp will control the cost of getting customers this year, and focus more on the improvement of user frequency and stickiness. 1) Channel customer acquisition dimension, focusing on improving the ROI of channel customer acquisition users, and keeping the customer acquisition cost within a reasonable range. 2) the core competitiveness dimension of the platform will continue to strengthen the product operation investment of hot spots and social networking to ensure the supply of Weibo Corp hot spots and IP discussions. 3) upgrade the product of the hyperphone community and increase the type coverage of Weibo Corp's virtual community.

Weibo Corp's unique customer structure, advertising model and product portfolio promote the advertising business to grow against the trend. 2021Q4 Weibo Corp non-BABA advertising revenue was 510 million US dollars, an increase of 28% over the same period last year. Although the industry is facing headwinds, Weibo Corp's advertising has achieved considerable growth, driven by: 1) in terms of customer structure, Weibo Corp is more balanced, and industries more affected by regulation, such as education and finance, have less negative impact on Weibo Corp. 2) in terms of industry marketing, key industries such as cosmetics, food and beverages, 3C digital and automobiles still maintain considerable growth, while key industries such as luxury goods, shoes and clothing contribute higher growth in Q4. 3) in terms of advertising models and products, Weibo Corp's effective advertising model and unique social advertising model have competitive advantages. Weibo Corp provides a rich portfolio of advertising products and continues to innovate.

There is still uncertainty in the industry in 2022, and the profit end may be under pressure. On the revenue side, Weibo Corp's core advertising industries such as fast consumer, digital, cars and luxury goods have a good growth trend since the beginning of this year, but live e-commerce and education and training industry may have a negative impact. We expect Weibo Corp Q1 advertising revenue to achieve medium-to-high unit growth.

Based on last year's high base and current macroeconomic and regulatory uncertainty, income growth is expected to slow for the full year.

On the profit side, we expect the gross profit margin to decline, mainly due to 1) the reduction and reduction of cultural construction fees will be stopped this year. 2) Weibo Corp is expected to invest a large amount of content in sports and games this year. 3) Weibo Corp plans to upgrade products for Weibo Corp stores this year, some industries try to do closed-loop transactions, and e-commerce investment may be increased. In terms of operating expenses, Weibo Corp will control channel expenses more strictly. We expect profit margins to decline.

Investment advice: we expect Weibo Corp's income from 2022 to 2024 to be US $2.67 billion, respectively, and the net profit of non-GAAP is about US $7.2 million, respectively. We give Weibo Corp Hong Kong shares (9898.HK) a target price of HK $225 and US stocks (WB.O) a target price of US $29, corresponding to 9x 2022e P Bank E, maintaining an "overweight" rating.

Risk hint: the demand of advertisers is weaker than expected, the advertising competition of traffic platform is higher than expected, and the risks related to Internet regulatory policies.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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