Core point of view: Renrui Talent is a leading company in China's flexible employment industry. Although it has been affected by the termination of cooperation by the largest customer in the past 21 years, the underlying genes of the company will not change due to fluctuations in demand, and it is still expected to take advantage of the industry dividend period to grow and maintain its leading position in the industry in the future. At present, the market believes that there are many uncertainties in the future of the company, the valuation is low, and it is expected to obtain α-income.
Coverage for the first time, giving a "overweight" rating. Taking into account the competitive advantage of the company's talent supply chain construction and the announced strategic revenue mergers and acquisitions, we estimate that Renrui talents' revenue in 21-23 will be 45.06 billion yuan, an increase of 59%, a growth rate of 59%, a net profit of 1.10%, 1.42 / 199 million yuan and a growth rate of-40%, 29% and 40%, corresponding to PE9.3/7.2/5.2, covering for the first time. Give a rating of "overweight".
In the past, Renrui talents achieved rapid development with the help of the strong demand of the new economy. There are a large number of basic manual jobs in the Internet industry, such as content audit, customer service and other posts, which are labor-intensive jobs. Flexible employment can achieve the purpose of reducing cost and increasing efficiency. In this way, Renrui talents achieve rapid development, 2017-2020, Renrui talent revenue and management of the number of spiritual workers CAGR is 52.3% 38.2%.
The largest customer in 21 years terminated the cooperation and did not change the underlying genes of the company. Important customers of the new economy, which accounted for 37.6% of the company's revenue in 2020, ended cooperation at the end of the 21st year, not because of the company's own operating factors. We believe that the company's track is still prosperous, with three characteristics of low permeability, positive cultivation and high growth rate. Team, labor pool and digitalization are still the advantages of the company: the senior management of the company has the compound background of Internet + 's human resources, and the offline layout of the country is more than 300 cities; the company has accumulated a database of more than 7 million talents, which has become the core resources of the supply side; the company has built a digital ecology composed of five major digital platforms to help reduce costs and increase efficiency.
In the future, the construction of talent supply chain and the expansion of new customers will contribute to stable performance and growth. With the help of the integration of industry and education, the company obtains talents, opens the channel of vocational education and spiritual workers' employment, and further expands the core labor pool; with the help of mergers and acquisitions, the company quickly cuts into the new field of psychic workers to ensure diversified sources of customers and fully release the competitive advantage of the company's supply side.
Risk tips: (1) policy fluctuations in the human resources industry; (2) lower-than-expected M & A process; (3) lower-than-expected gross profit improvement; (4) the risk of not updating the information and data used in research and reporting in a timely manner.