The share of the headphone business continues to increase, and Rambler's market share in the TWS market continues to increase. In the first three quarters of 2019-2021, the company's headphone product revenue accounted for 55%, 62%, and 65% respectively. The rapid development of the headphone business line offset the decline in the traditional audio business line and continued to contribute to the growth of the company's performance. According to Alibaba's online data, Rambler's sales market share for the full year of 2021 was 7.9%, and it reached 9.9% in January 2022. The market share continues to increase. On the one hand, it shows that the Android brand TWS headphone market continues to grow, and on the other hand, it shows that Rambler can maintain a certain market advantage in the fierce TWS competition.
Benefiting from the development of the headphone business, the business line continues to launch new products, and the company's profitability has increased. The company released its 21-year performance report on February 16. It is expected to achieve revenue of 2,311 million yuan in '21, +19.50% year on year, and net profit of Guimu is 315 million yuan, +14.18% year on year. Mainly thanks to the launch of new products fitpods and lollipods Pro in the first half of '21 and the launch of S3 in the second half of '21, which led to TWS business growth, the company's profitability continued to improve.
Overall market demand has increased, and Rambler's monthly growth is better than the market. 1) According to Alibaba's online data, in January '22, Alibaba platform TWS headphone sales were +36.90% year-on-year, and Rambler +69.21%; in the Q4 single quarter, Alibaba's market sales were -40.97% year-on-year, and Rambler sales were -24.77% year-on-year, outperforming the market. The main reason was that Rambler continued to explore TWS headphone products, from Lollipods Mic noise reduction to LolliPods Pro active noise reduction, opening up cost advantages and improving the product structure. We expect TWS to account for the company's revenue in the future Over 70% of it. 2) Android branding logic has been further verified. According to Alibaba online data, in January '22, the cumulative sales shares of the Alibaba platforms Huawei, Rambler, and Xiaomi were 11.1%, 9.9%, and 3.5% respectively.
Investment advice: We expect the company's revenue for 21-23 to be 23.11, 26.97, and 3.110 billion yuan respectively, and net profit of the mother to be 315, 410, and 469 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS of 0.35, 0.46, and 0.53 yuan, maintaining the purchase rating.
Risk warning: TWS chip supply falls short of expectations; similar competitors enter; downstream customers change.