Event: the company released its 21-year performance, KuaiBao, with an operating income of 5.085 billion yuan in 21 years, an increase of 21.32% over the same period last year, a net profit of 1.006 billion yuan, an increase of 22.12% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 808 million yuan per share, an increase of 3.71% over the same period last year.
The fourth quarter maintained rapid growth, and the full-year performance was in line with expectations: 4Q21 achieved revenue of 1.435 billion yuan, an increase of 21.57% over the same period last year (31.71% Q1/Q2/Q3 23.98% up 9.96% on a year-on-year basis), and achieved a return to home net profit of 189 million yuan, an increase of 16.90% over the same period last year (17.19% 27.20% 25.69% for Q1/Q2/Q3 alone). The 21-year non-recurrent profit and loss totaled 198 million yuan, mainly including the change in fair value of Huada Beidou equity, the investment income from the acquisition of Qingdao Yingnuo and the disposal of Qingdao Jiayize, etc. The 4Q21 return / deduction non-net profit rate is 13.16% and 6.79%, which is 0.53% and 4.96pct lower than the same period last year. We believe that the gross profit margin has declined mainly due to the price reduction of some tobacco products and the change in income structure. It is expected that as the company promotes the first-class tobacco label business and launches high value-added products, and through process improvement, equipment upgrading, lean management and other ways to optimize production, reduce cost and increase efficiency, the profit level is expected to improve.
The main business of tobacco label needs to be restored, and the performance of the new business is outstanding: in terms of sub-business, the revenue of tobacco label decreased by 4.07% compared with the same period last year, mainly because some regional market business is in the recovery period, and the follow-up is expected to recover gradually. The revenue of color boxes increased by 23.52% compared with the same period last year, in which the company grasped the market trend of upgrading middle and high-end tobacco and alcohol packaging, and continuously strengthened product research and development and market development. The revenue of boutique tobacco cases / alcohol packaging increased by 14.24% and 217.59% compared with the same period last year. Customers have covered Maotai, Wuliangye, Yanghe, Fenjiu and so on. New tobacco revenue increased by 381.16% year-on-year, capacity expansion, resource integration, R & D investment, etc. enable the company to continue to expand quality customers; in addition, paper / e-cigarette supply chain revenue increased by 5.40% 98.02% year-on-year. We believe that with the steady growth of the large packaging plate, the early investment of new materials and new tobacco plate is gradually realized, and the company's revenue is expected to grow rapidly.
The layout of the new tobacco industry chain is expected to become a new growth point: upstream consumables, Yunshuo Technology has a layout in traditional tobacco flavors and atomized tobacco oil, Changyi Technology in HNB flavors and spices and supporting new materials; in the middle manufacturing side, Jinjia Technology has a comprehensive layout in e-cigarettes, Jiayu Technology in HNB smoking sets, and Jiaju Electronics in the three main tracks of HNB Materia Medica products. Downstream sales side, on the one hand through its own brand FOOGO sales, on the other hand through Yunpu Xinghe, Hong Kong Hengtian Commercial and other customers at home and abroad to provide new tobacco supply chain services. We expect that with the gradual implementation of the industry policy, the company's whole industry chain layout advantage is expected to reflect, or become a new performance growth point in the future.
Profit forecast and rating: we expect the company's net profit for 21-22 years to be 10.06 yuan and 1.243 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of 22.1% and 23.6% respectively. The closing price on March 1 corresponds to a PE of 22.8,18.5 times for 21-22 years. The comparable company gives the company a 22-year valuation of 21-22 times PE, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 17.64-18.48 yuan, which is rated as "better than the market".
Risk hint: macro-downward consumption is weak, color box business expansion is not as expected, and major changes have taken place in policy.