Event: the company released its 2021 results, KuaiBao. In 2021, the income reached 5.085 billion yuan, up 21.3 percent over the same period last year; the net profit returned to the mother was 1.006 billion yuan, up 22.1 percent over the same period last year; and the non-return net profit was 808 million yuan, an increase of 3.7 percent over the same period last year. Of this total, Q4 achieved 1.435 billion yuan in revenue in the single quarter, up 21.6 percent over the same period last year; the net profit returned to the mother was 189 million yuan, up 16.9 percent over the same period last year, deducting 97 million yuan in non-return net profit, down 29.8 percent from the same period last year.
Cigarette label business declined slightly, color box business continued to grow rapidly. In 2021, the revenue of the company's cigarette label and color box was 23.01 yuan and 1.136 billion yuan respectively, which was-4.07% and + 23.52% respectively compared with the same period last year. In terms of tobacco label, the company is in a period of recovery in some areas, and the price of some products has been reduced, and the revenue of tobacco label has declined compared with the same period last year.
2) in terms of color boxes, the company grasps the upgrading trend of mid-and high-end tobacco and alcohol packaging and 3C packaging, strengthens product research and development and market development, promotes high-end film products, and continues to promote high-end product management strategy. High-quality cigarette boxes are merged into the color box plate, and sales continue to grow rapidly.
Speed up the layout of new tobacco business and develop the second growth curve
In 21 years, the new tobacco business increased by 381.16% compared with the same period last year. The company through the acquisition of high-quality targets to improve the layout of the new tobacco industry chain, card position atomized smoke and HNB research, production and marketing links, 20 years of plate income base is low, 21 years of rapid growth.
In the future, domestic atomized tobacco will also be regulated by China Tobacco, and the cooperation between the company and China Tobacco is stable. By virtue of the first-mover advantage, it is expected to fully enjoy the dividend of domestic new tobacco development after the implementation of the regulation.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion
As a leading enterprise in cigarette packaging, the cigarette label business builds its solid basic plate; color box business develops high-end film; pays close attention to the general trend of new tobacco development and comprehensively cards all aspects of new tobacco business. It is expected to fully enjoy the dividend of domestic new tobacco development after the landing of supervision by virtue of the first-mover advantage. It is estimated that the net profit of homing from 2021 to 2023 is 10.06,12.59 and 1.519 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 24.8X, 19.8X and 16.4X, with a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk hint
The regulation of the new tobacco industry exceeded expectations; the market competition intensified; the terminal demand slowed down.