Event description
The company released its 2021 results KuaiBao, realizing revenue / return net profit / deducting non-net profit of 50.85 trillion yuan / deducting non-net profit of 50.85 trillion yuan, with an increase of 21%, 22%, and 4%, of which Q4 realized revenue / return net profit / deducted non-net profit of 1435, 18997 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of + 22%, 17%, and 30%, of which Q4 realized revenue / home net profit / deducted non-net profit of 1.8997 million yuan, year-on-year change.
Event comment
Tobacco label main business is sound, color box and new tobacco business, single Q4 revenue increased by 22%. Tobacco label: the revenue of tobacco label decreased by 4.07% in 2021 (13.8% in 2020), the rate of decline narrowed, and the single Q4 was basically the same as the previous period. In 2021, the business may still be under pressure periodically under the influence of factors such as bidding. Considering the gradual weakening of the follow-up impact (with reference to the latest tender announcement of Yunyan, Jingjia strongly returned and continued to win the bid in 2022, the main tenders of last year were mainly subsidiaries such as Chongqing Hongjin / Qingdao Jiaze, etc.), it is optimistic that the share of the core area will rise steadily; at the same time, under the background of cigarette structure upgrading, Jinjia can steadily increase its market share by virtue of its strong design production capacity. Color box: color box revenue will increase by 23.52% in 2021 (10% in 2020). It is expected that single Q4 will continue to grow rapidly, of which 1) 3C packaging will continue to grow, mainly benefiting from the rapid growth of the e-cigarette market, and the company has high-quality customers such as Yueke and British American Tobacco PLC. It is expected to continue to enjoy the industry growth dividend; 2) under the background of tobacco structural upgrading, high-quality cigarette boxes may continue to grow well. 3) the company grasps the market trend of high-end tobacco and alcohol packaging, continues to expand the customers of high-quality wine enterprises, and the wine bag business is expected to achieve rapid growth. New tobacco: revenue from the new tobacco sector increased by 381.16% in 2021, reaching 190 million yuan (39.68 million yuan in 2020, up 118%). It is expected that Q4 alone will continue to grow rapidly.
The net profit of single Q4 increased by 17%, and the change in income structure led to a decrease in net interest rate. Single Q4 return net interest rate / deducted non-net interest rate 13.2% 6.8%, with the same drop in 0.5/4.96pcts, single Q4 deduction of non-net interest rate or new tobacco business with lower current profit margin accounts for a relatively large proportion. Single Q4 non-recurrent profit or loss or equity held mainly by the company is converted into transactional financial assets in 2021, generating more than 90 million yuan of income in Q4. For the whole year, the net interest rate of homing / deducting non-net interest rate of 19.8% / 15.9% in 2021, year-on-year change + 0.13/-2.70pcts, deducting the decline of non-net interest rate or the main reason: 1) disturbed by equity incentive fees; 2) the business of the company's tobacco label in some regional markets is in a period of recovery, and the price reduction of some products makes the gross profit margin decline to a certain extent. 3) the company will increase its investment in the new tobacco sector in 2021, and the related costs have increased.
Atomization and HNB two-pronged approach, optimistic about the rapid expansion of the company's new tobacco business. Under the background of the intensive release of the new tobacco policy, the layout of the company's new business was getting better and better, and the company's new tobacco business grew rapidly during the year, mainly from the background of tightening the atomization policy, the atomization OEM / brand / supply chain and other business of the previous layout of the company is expected to achieve high growth by virtue of compliance operating capacity and technology reserves; at the same time, if the domestic HNB market is liberalized in the future, it is expected that the company will realize revenue in the HNB field.
Tobacco label main business sound, color box business growth potential, in-depth layout of new tobacco, is expected to enjoy the policy-driven industry consolidation dividend, maintain the "buy" rating. Jinjia, as an excellent private tobacco label leader in China, with the early policy disturbance tends to end, under the background of high-end upgrading of tobacco, by virtue of strong design-manufacturing-integrated service capability, the traditional tobacco label main industry is expected to achieve steady growth in large digits. At the same time, the color box business has great growth potential, and the new tobacco layout is accelerated. According to the company's equity incentive target, the growth rate in 2021-2023 will be no less than 22%, 50%, 85%, based on homing net profit in 2020. We estimate that the return net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.53 billion yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 25pm, 20max, 16X respectively.
Risk hint
1. The traditional tobacco sales are under pressure, and the profit margins of the supply chain are compressed. 2. The implementation of the new tobacco policy is not as expected.