Event: the company released its 2021 performance KuaiBao, with an operating income of 5.085 billion yuan during the reporting period, + 21.32% compared with the same period last year; a net profit of 1.006 billion yuan, + 22.12%; and a net profit of 808 million yuan, + 3.71% over the same period last year.
Comments:
Successfully completed the equity incentive performance assessment target, the annual performance is in line with expectations. The company's boutique cigarette cases, wine boxes and other large packaging sector business performance is sound, new tobacco and new materials and other business sectors of rapid growth, promoting the company to successfully complete the equity incentive performance assessment target, the overall business performance is in line with expectations.
Judging from the situation in a single quarter, the company Q4 achieved revenue of 1.435 billion yuan in a single quarter, + 23.52% year-on-year; net profit of 189 million yuan in a single quarter, + 16.79% in the same period last year; and net profit of 97 million yuan in deduction,-29.96% in the same period last year. We believe that the decline in the growth rate of Q4's non-return net profit in a single quarter is due to the rapid growth of the new tobacco business with low gross profit margin, which lowers the company's profit level to a certain extent. In the future, as the scale effect of the new tobacco business gradually appears and the company continues to pay attention to reducing costs and increasing efficiency, the company's profitability is expected to pick up gradually.
The card position of the new tobacco track has obvious starting advantages, and the company has full momentum for long-term growth. In terms of business, the company's traditional cigarette label business revenue is-4.07% compared with the same period last year. On the one hand, it is due to the price reduction of some products and the recovery of some regional market business, on the other hand, the revenue of boutique cigarette boxes is classified as color box business. The company's annual revenue from traditional cigarette labels and boutique cigarette boxes still increased steadily compared with the same period last year. The development of new customers of color box business is smooth, and the revenue of driving color box products is + 23.52% compared with the same period last year. And the company's comprehensive card position of the new tobacco track, atomization layout OEM (Jinjia Technology) / Tobacco and Flavor Flavor (Yunshuo Technology) / E-cigarette Brand (FOOGO) / E-cigarette Trade and overseas channels (Hengtian Commercial) HNB business layout cigarette cartridge + brand operation + overseas channel + granule cigarette cartridge independent filling equipment (Jiaju Electronics) / HNB essence + cooling section (Changyi Technology) / overseas channel platform (Hengtian Commercial) / Yunyan Strategic Cooperation OEM (Jiayu Technology), etc. The distribution of the new tobacco business has obvious first-mover advantages, and the revenue continues to grow beautifully, and the new tobacco revenue for the whole year is + 381.16% compared with the same period last year.
Investment suggestion: the traditional packaging business develops steadily, while the new tobacco business provides sufficient momentum. The company's tobacco label business has recovered steadily, the business of color boxes and new materials has grown steadily, and the layout of the new tobacco business has been extensive and continues to grow highly. in the future, with the gradual landing of China's new tobacco national standards and supervision, profit elasticity is expected to be released quickly. We maintain the company's profit forecast and expect the company's return net profit from 2022 to 2023 to be 1.25 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to the current market capitalization PE of 20x16X, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk Tip: raw material prices fluctuate sharply and new business development is not as expected.