The company forecasts a 22% year-on-year increase in net profit in 2021.
The company released its 2021 performance KuaiBao, with an income of 5.08 billion yuan, an increase of 21.3% over the same period last year, a net profit of 1.01 billion yuan, an increase of 22.1% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 810 million yuan, an increase of 3.7% over the same period last year. According to KuaiBao's data, the company's 4Q21 revenue / return net profit was 1.44 billion yuan / 190 million yuan respectively, an increase of 22% and 17% respectively over the same period last year. The performance is in line with our expectations.
Pay attention to the main points
1. Revenue increased by 21.3% in 2021, and the contribution of new business mainly increased. From the perspective of business: 1) cigarette label:
On the one hand, the price of some products has been reduced due to the influence of historical bidding and intensified competition in the industry, on the other hand, the company has adjusted its boutique cigarette case business to the color box business sector. in 2021, the sales of the company's tobacco label products decreased by 4.1% compared with the same period last year. However, we expect that with the gradual resumption of cooperation between the company and Yunnan and other China Tobacco companies, the company's tobacco label business is expected to return to steady growth in the future. 2) Color boxes: in 2021, the company's color box business revenue increased by 23.5% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the company's increasing market development and product research and development efforts in wine bags, consumer electronic packaging, daily chemical packaging and other fields. Cooperation with Yanghe, Fenjiu, Yunnan Baiyao and other enterprises continues to deepen. 3) New tobacco: the revenue of the company's new tobacco business increased by 381.2% in 2021 compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the fact that the company grasped the development opportunity of the industry, accelerated the extension of the upstream and downstream links of the new tobacco industry chain, and continued to promote customer expansion. Capacity construction to keep up with the pace.
2. The overall profitability is relatively stable. The company's homing net interest rate in 2021 is 19.8%, which is basically the same as the same period last year, and its profitability is relatively stable. we expect the investment income such as the change of subsidiary equity and government subsidies to effectively improve the company's profitability. The traditional tobacco label business is affected by the intensification of market competition, some products have reduced prices, profitability may be under pressure, but the company actively promotes the transformation of tobacco label business to the direction of high-end and high-quality products, which is expected to effectively hedge the impact of price reduction of old products.
3. Be optimistic about the development prospect of the company's color box business and new tobacco business. 1) Color box business: the company continues to open up new areas such as boutique cigarette cases, wine bags, consumer electronic packaging and daily chemical packaging, and the boutique cigarette case market continues to expand under the upgrading of tobacco industrial structure. in addition, we estimate that the scale of the wine bag market and the consumer electronic packaging market is more than 30 billion yuan, and the wine bag market is scattered and the degree of marketization is enhanced. Jinjia and other national packaging leading enterprises are expected to continue to seize market share by virtue of excellent product quality, higher production efficiency and better service. 2) New tobacco: at present, the new tobacco market at home and abroad is still in the stage of rapid growth, and the permeability still has much room to improve; the company actively promotes the extension of industrial chain, capacity construction and customer development in the field of atomization and HNB. We expect that in the future, with the further standardization of the market by industry policies, high-quality industry leaders such as Jinjia are expected to benefit.
Valuation and suggestion
The earnings forecast for 2021-2023 will remain unchanged, with the current share price corresponding to 20 times Pmax E in 2022. Maintain an outperform industry rating and a list price of 20 yuan, corresponding to 23 times Pmax E in 2022, which is 18% higher than the current stock price.
Risk.
The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly, the competition in the industry intensifies, and the industry policy changes.