The company released its annual performance KuaiBao in 2021, and the announcement shows that the company is expected to achieve an annual operating income of 5.08 billion yuan (YoY+21.3%), a net profit of 1.01 billion yuan (YoY+22.1%) and a non-return net profit of 810 million yuan (YoY+3.7%). The company successfully completed the first phase of the performance evaluation target, which is basically in line with expectations. We expect the company's 23-year homing net profit to be 1.25 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 25% over the same period last year. The 25-day share price corresponds to a 22-year PE of 20X, maintaining the "highly recommended-A" rating.
Q4 revenue is expected to increase by 22%, and home net profit is expected to increase by 17%. According to the company's performance KuaiBao, the company's 21Q4 is expected to achieve a total operating income of 1.4 billion yuan (YoY+22%) and a return net profit of 190 million yuan (YoY+17%). From the point of view of the traditional main business sub-business plate, 1 cigarette label business: the sales revenue of the company's tobacco label products decreased by 4.07% in 21 years compared with the same period last year, mainly because the company's previous regional bidding was affected and is still in the recovery channel. and the price reduction of some products has a partial impact on gross profit margin, and the follow-up company volume and price are expected to usher in a certain repair, which will drive the recovery of plate income and profitability. 2 color box business: the company's sales revenue of color box products increased by 23.52% in the past 21 years compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the obvious upgrading trend of high-end tobacco and alcohol packaging and 3C packaging, the company also promotes the iterative upgrading of its own products to further expand high-quality customers and drive revenue growth.
The growth of the new tobacco business is eye-catching, and the card layout is beginning to take shape. In the past 21 years, the company has made breakthroughs in the extension of the industrial chain, customer expansion and capacity construction of the new tobacco. The sales revenue of the new tobacco sector has increased by 381.16% compared with the same period last year, and the growth has been further accelerated (the sales revenue of the new tobacco sector has increased by 118.36% over the same period last year). At present, it is still dominated by disposable cigarette ODM/OEM, and the customers are high quality and in the growth channel, thus driving the growth of this business segment of the company. The strength of Foogo brand products is also excellent, and it can be expected in the future.
The company is expected to continue to land new tobacco industry chain investment projects, gradually forming a heating non-combustion + atomization product research and development and production (flavor: Yunshuo technology, Changyi technology, HNB supporting materials: Changyi science and technology, heating non-burning herbal smoke bomb: Jiaju electronics Atomization / HNB smoking sets: Jinjia Technology, Jiayu Technology, Jiaju Electronics)-Brand Operation (Foogo)-the whole industry chain layout of sales channels (Yunpu Xinghe, Hengtian Commerce), thus magnifying the synergy of each link. In addition, in the current policy vacuum period, the company will strengthen the layout in the form of foreign investment, and gradually carry out internal carding and integration to build a new tobacco industry platform, constantly consolidate the card position advantages, and respond to policy regulatory changes will be more flexible and leisurely.
Maintain the "highly recommended-A" investment rating. We estimate that the company's homing net profit from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.05 billion, an increase of 22%, 25%, 24%, respectively, corresponding to a 22-year PE of 20X on February 25, maintaining the "highly recommended-A" investment rating.
Risk hints: policy regulatory risks, lower-than-expected penetration, and lower-than-expected business integration