Main points of investment
Traditional business: cigarette label re-bid key customers, 22 years of repair can be expected, color box steady growth of tobacco label main business: 21 years the company's tobacco label business fell 4.07% to 2.3 billion compared with the same period last year, mainly: (1) the company's business in some regions such as Yunnan and Hubei markets is in a period of recovery, and the release of orders to the revenue side is mainly reflected in 22 years. (2) the price reduction of some old products makes the cigarette revenue and gross profit margin decline to a certain extent, and the actual sales decline is slightly better than the income. Looking forward to 22 years, driven by the restorative growth of key customers and the new bid-winning business, the company is expected to have a strong momentum in repairing the main tobacco label, while expanding more high-quality tobacco label business and providing high added value, and the profit margin is expected to be steady and upward.
Color box business: the company has continued to make efforts in the color box field in the past 21 years, and its revenue has increased by 23.5% to 1.136 billion compared with the same period last year.
In terms of subdivision, we estimate that boutique cigarette cases account for about 55% in 21 years, and continue to dig deeply into the customer share of China Tobacco, which is expected to increase by 10-20%. British American Tobacco PLC is expected to contribute more in consumer electronics packaging electronic cigarette packaging in 21 years, but the contribution of domestic customers is reduced. The company cut into mobile phone boxes, and the overall growth is expected to be 20%. Wine packaging in the company to increase cooperation with Maotai, Wuliangye, Yanghe, Xijiu, Fenjiu and other customers, is expected to contribute the most incremental. Looking forward to 22 years, the company in the middle and high-end tobacco and alcohol, consumer electronic products and other segments of the packaging market share gradually increased, revenue is expected to continue high growth.
New tobacco: deepen the layout, build a comprehensive solution service provider, revenue increased for 21 years, the company's new tobacco business increased 381.16% year-on-year to about 200 million yuan, the company orderly carried out new tobacco business, and completed Yunshuo technology, Changyi technology, Jiaju electronics, the new tobacco territory continued to expand, extending from smoking sets to consumables. In 18-20 years, the company's new tobacco layout revolves around smoking sets, including Jinjia Technology (main customers suorin, gippro, atomized e-cigarette OEM, 21 years business close to 200 million), Jiayu Technology (Yunyan joint venture, HNB OEM), Yingwei Technology (XIAOMI joint venture, Foogo independent brand). Since the beginning of 21 years, the company has gradually laid out consumables, established an Indonesian subsidiary in June, planned to distribute HNB raw materials, contributed 10.59 million yuan to Yunshuo Technology in November for the layout of atomized e-cigarette flavors, increased funding for Changyi Science and Technology to improve the layout of HNB flavors and flavors, and participated in Jiaju electronic layout of low-temperature herbal smoke bombs. Looking forward to 22 years, the company's forward-looking and sound layout will drive the new tobacco business to a higher level.
Profit forecast and valuation
We estimate that in 21-23, the revenue will be 50.85, 63.64 and 7.928 million respectively, an increase of 21.32%, 25.16%, 24.57%, and a net profit of 10.06, 12.33, 15.08 million, respectively, an increase of 22.12%, 22.56%, 22.32%. The current share price is 24.69X/20.14X/16.47X corresponding to PE, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the development of new tobacco business is lower than expected, and the growth of color box is lower than expected.
