On Thursday, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated, the global market was jittery, and the Federal Reserve faced the double pressure of inflation and risk aversion.

Us federal funds rate futures show a 16.5 per cent chance of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, compared with about 30 per cent on Wednesday. So farAccording to market expectations, the 50bp probability of raising interest rates in March has fallen below 20 per cent.

However, on the same day, a number of senior Fed officials made speeches, most of which related to the situation in Russia and Ukraine. On the whole, so far, senior Fed officials have revealed the same tone:Watch closelyWith the development of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the monetary policy position will not be changed for the time being.

The following is a review of the statements made by five senior Fed officials so far overnight:

Federal Reserve Governor Waller

Waller, the governor of the Federal Reserve, once again saidIf the data are strong, it is highly likely to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in March, preferring to raise interest rates by 100 basis points by the middle of the year.Excessive inflation is "worrying" and the Fed needs to "act quickly". Mr Waller supports the start of the contraction no later than July and thinks it is a good goal to reduce the balance sheet to 8 per cent of GDP.

Waller also pointed out that the Fed must act decisively to maintain public confidence that the Fed can control inflation. It is too early to tell how the conflict in Ukraine will affect the world or the US economy. After the attack on Ukraine, more moderate austerity may be appropriate.

Barkin, chairman of the Richmond Federal Reserve.

Richard Barkin, chairman of the Richmond Federal Reserve, said he would have to see whether the crisis in Ukraine would subvert the Fed's view on monetary policy. Over time, it will be clear whether the situation in Ukraine will undermine the Fed's view of monetary policy and the outlook for the US economy.

Daley, chairman of the San Francisco Federal Reserve.

Compared with earlier statements, Daley's tone this week is much more hawkish. Daley said on Wednesday that the Fed should continue to raise interest rates even if there is uncertainty about a conflict between Ukraine and Russia because of stubbornly high inflation and a strong labor market. Its representationUnless things get worse, this will not affect the Fed's decision to start raising interest rates in MarchIt is too early to ask for a 50 basis point increase in interest rates. However, it depends on the situation to decide whether it is necessary to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in the future. And reiterated on Thursday that the Fed needs to tighten policy given high inflation and a strong U. S. economy.

Mestre, chairman of the Cleveland Federal Reserve

As the voting committee this year, Cleveland Fed Chairman Mestre said on Thursday that geopolitical risks increase inflation and growth risks to the United States in the short term. But she still thinksIt would be appropriate for the Fed to raise interest rates in March and for FOMC to launch a series of rate hikes.Reiterate its support for the Fed's position to sell (through QE) mortgage-backed securities (MBS) "at some point in time". As for the labor market, Mestre said that employment growth has slowed to some extent, which is not necessarily a bad thing.

Bostick, chairman of the Atlanta Federal Reserve.

Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostick said the Fed is closely tracking the crisis in Ukraine to assess the possible economic impact of the situation. FOMC monetary policy is destined to return to a more normal state. Long-term US price expectations are still anchored to a considerable extent. Bostick said the Atlanta Fed and the entire Fed system will closely monitor the development to assess its economic and financial impact. But the Fed's top priority right now is to control inflation.He is prepared to support interest rate hikes at least four times this year, each of which is 25 basis points."the number of interest rate increases may be more, depending on the circumstances. "

Attached: the position of Eagle and Pigeon of FOMC