Russia and Ukraine are the main suppliers of global commodity trade. Ukraine is an important exporter of grains and non-ferrous metals, while Russia occupies an important position in the global energy market, including crude oil and natural gas.If the friction between Russia and Ukraine escalates, which commodities will be affected? What is the proportion of them in the world?

Natural gas

Russia is the largest energy supplier to the European Union. About 40 per cent of EU natural gas imports and nearly 1/3 of crude oil imports come from Russia.

Crude oil

Russia is one of the world's major crude oil producers, accounting for about 11% of global oil production and 35% of global exports. Russia's crude oil supply accounted for 29% of Europe's total crude oil imports in 2021. Russia is an important negotiator in the OPEC+ production plan, accounting for about 25 per cent of the total OPEC+ agreed output from January to February this year.

Corn & wheat

Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, accounting for 10 per cent of global output and 20 per cent of international exports. Ukraine is the world's fifth-largest exporter of wheat, with a 10 per cent share. Ukraine accounts for more than 10% of corn exports and controls the production and export of large amounts of sunflower oil and barley.

镍

Last year, Russia accounted for nearly 10% of the world's mineral production. Russia has Russo Nickel Nornickel, the world's largest high-grade nickel producer. Russian nickel output has been relatively stable in recent years, basically maintained at about 210000 tons. Russian nickel production is mainly concentrated in Russia, Finland and South Africa, of which Russia accounts for about 80 per cent of Polar division and Kola MMC production.

According to the data of China's imported refined nickel, China imported 46093 tons of refined nickel from Russia in 2021, accounting for 17.53% of the total imports, while this proportion was 39.31% in 2020 and 45.48% in 2019.

铜

Russia accounts for a certain proportion of the global copper supply. Data show that Russia's refined copper supply has stabilized at 1 million tons in recent years, accounting for more than 4 per cent of the world, while domestic demand is more than 300,000 tons and net exports are 16-700000 tons. At present, the global copper inventory situation is very low, once there is a supply disturbance, the copper price is positive; in addition, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is the first to bear the brunt, and the European energy supply is already tight. Once the conflict intensifies, Russia's anti-sanctions will further aggravate the situation of energy tensions in Europe and even the world, and European smelters may have to reduce production and shut down; but the conflict will also lead to an increase in risk aversion in the market.

铝

Russia is the second largest producer of primary aluminum after China, with United producing 3.764 million tons in 2021, accounting for 5 per cent of global production, 93 per cent of which is located in Siberia. In terms of regional distribution, Europe is still the main market, with a sales share of 41% in Europe, 27% in Russia and the CIS. China imported 1.58 million tons of electrolytic aluminum in 2021, of which 18.4% were imported from Russia.

Iron ore

Ukraine is an important exporter of iron ore pellets in the world, second only to Brazil and Sweden in the first 11 months of 2021. From January to November 2021, Ukraine's iron ore exports were 36.71 million tons, down 2.8% from the same period last year, but thanks to higher iron ore prices, exports increased by 78.7% year-on-year. China imported a total of 1.124315 billion tons of iron ore in 2022, of which 17.44 million tons were imported from Ukraine.