Events:
According to KuaiBao, the company is expected to achieve operating income of 728 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 31% over the same period last year; net profit of 51 million yuan, an increase of 61% over the same period last year; of which, net profit of non-return is 48 million yuan, an increase of 68% over the same period last year; and the weighted average rate of return on net assets is 6.89%, an increase of 2.09pct over 2020.
The stamping parts business of new energy vehicles has increased significantly, with improved profits, and the performance of capacity expansion is expected to speed up the company's return to its mother in the fourth quarter of 2021, with a net profit of 25 million yuan, which is on the upper side of the previous performance forecast, in line with market expectations. Benefiting from the improvement in the prosperity of the stamping parts business of new energy vehicles, the stable income of the export stamping die business, and the continuous reduction of costs and efficiency to strengthen the proactive management of receivables and foreign exchange, the company's net interest rate reached 8.8% in the fourth quarter of 2021, basically returning to the level before the epidemic in 2019.
According to the previous announcement, the company plans to build new production capacity of core parts of new energy vehicles in Qingcun Town, Fengxian, Shanghai (located in the new area of Lingang Free Trade Zone), so as to provide a new fulcrum for the company's future performance.
Traditional main business profits are expected to reverse; stamping parts / battery boxes / lithium devices build long-term growth momentum 1, stamping parts: the compound growth rate of income in the next three years is nearly 100%, and the long-term space is broad. 1) the customer sales of important stamping parts are growing rapidly; 2) the matching value of bicycles has the potential to double; 3) with the increase of the welding proportion of stamping parts, there is room for improvement in profitability; 4) strengthen the stamping parts sales team and constantly open up new customers.
2. Power battery box: the volume is expected in the second half of 2022, and the follow-up new fixed point can be expected. 1) the project fixed point of the battery box assembly of a certain model of VF has been obtained; 2) the market space is broad, and the domestic power battery box market size is expected to be 300-40 billion yuan in 2025; 3) actively open up new customers of power battery and vehicle factory.
3. Lithium power equipment: Ningbo Jiuju, which is 29% owned by Wuxi Weitang Industrial Investment Co., Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of the listed company, is actively developing some new energy equipment.
4. Traditional stamping dies: basic export, for the world's famous auto parts manufacturers, with a compound income growth rate of more than 10% in the next three years. 1) the mold is related to the number of models, and the number of new energy models has increased significantly in recent years; 2) to issue convertible bonds to achieve full-category mold coverage; 3) the freight has risen sharply and the exchange rate appreciation has a greater impact.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company's homing net profit from 2021 to 2023 is 0.5 million RMB 1.1 billion, with a three-year compound growth rate of 72%. The corresponding PE for 2021-2023 is twice that of 54-26-17, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk Tips:
The progress of production expansion of stamping parts is not as expected, the competition pattern is worse and the risk of technology iteration is worse; the newly signed order of battery box is not as expected; the progress of research and development of new energy equipment is not as expected.
