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“乌克兰+加息”双重打压,标普500跌入调整区间

"Ukraine + interest rate hike" double crackdown, S & P 500 fell into adjustment range

華爾街見聞 ·  Feb 23, 2022 10:32

But throughout the S & P 500's 20 adjustments in history, there is a 70% chance that it will rise a year later.

To describe the recent situation in US stocks in one sentence, it may be that "house leaks meet all-night rain".

The overall market sentiment has not yet fully recovered from the impact of the Fed's possible radical tightening, and the crisis in eastern Ukraine has followed.

After another setback overnight, the S & P 500 fell nearly 2% in intraday trading, while the Dow and Nasdaq fell more than 2%.

Although the subsequent decline in the three major indices narrowed due to the milder-than-expected sanctions announced by US President Joe Biden, by the close:

The S & P 500 fell 1.01%, the lowest since October 4 last year.It is 10% lower than the peak on January 3 this year, falling into the adjustment range.

The Dow closed down 1.42%, closing down for the third consecutive day and closing at its lowest level since June 18 last year.

The Nasdaq closed down 1.23%, hitting its lowest level since January 27 for the third day in a row.

In the S & P 500, all 11 sectors closed lower. The non-consumer goods sector led the decline of about 3 per cent, with Tesla, Inc. down more than 4 per cent, while public utilities, which had the smallest decline, fell less than 0.1 per cent.

The Wall Street Journal commented that in uncertain timesThe sectors where utilities and real estate companies are located lose less, while riskier sectors, such as growth stocks, will bear the brunt.

In uncertain times, market sectors that investors tend to pour into-including stocks in utilities and real estate companies-suffer relatively small losses, while riskier market sectors, such as growth stocks, suffer more losses.

Why did the crisis in Russia and Ukraine have such an impact on US stocks?

According to the Wall Street Journal, Dave Sekera, chief US market strategist at Morningstar, a research firm, believes that "sanctions themselves will not have a significant impact on the long-term profitability of American companies."But the biggest risk is that the United States could be directly involved in the conflict.Therefore, it will inevitably put pressure on the stock market.

Will US stocks continue to decline?

The Wall Street Journal quoted investors as saying that the situation is still unstable and that the sell-off is not over, and that there may be more selling similar to Tuesday's.

Lindsey Bell, chief market and currency strategist at investment firm Ally Invest, points out:

As the situation escalates and uncertainty increases on the way forward, investors are reducing risk. The market is likely to be nervous in the coming weeks.

Altaf Kassam, head of investment strategy and research for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at State Street Investment Management, said:

Investors have gone from seeing this as posturing and the threat of force to believing that conflict poses a real threat. The development of events has made it difficult to step back.

Michael Wilson, Wall Street's hottest analyst and chief US equity strategist who has long been bearish on US stocks, said "the market is sending mixed signals" as the situation in Ukraine escalates.

Wilson reiterated his view that the US stock market correction is not yet complete, the market is at risk of a correction and S & P may continue to fall by more than 10 per cent. The Michael Wilson has previously warned that the war between Russia and Ukraine "will significantly increase the likelihood of a polar whirlpool in the economy and profits". The surge in energy prices caused by the war "will undermine demand and could plunge major economies into recession", while energy stocks will face the risk of selling.

What is the probability that it will rebound after entering the adjustment range?

According to MarketWatch, a Dow Jones news site, historical data dating back to 1928 show that the market tends to rebound after the market index is revised.

On average, the index will rise 0.7% after a week of revision and fall 0.4% about two weeks later, but will rise over the next three weeks, January, six months and even the whole year.

Throughout its history, the s & p 500 has adjusted 20% (down 20% from its recent peak) and has a 70% chance of rising a year later.

Edit / Charlotte

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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