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相比俄乌问题,专家称美联储政策对市场来说更重要

Compared with Russia and Ukraine, experts say Fed policy is more important to the market.

Wind ·  Feb 23, 2022 07:48

Source: Wind

Jeremy Siegel, a professor at the Wharton School of Business, believes that some geopolitical events should not stop the Fed from raising interest rates to fight inflation.

Over the past two weeks, some geopolitical tensions seem to have spooked investors, causing the stock market to fall. However, Mr Siegel said the Fed needed to focus on fighting inflation.

"it would be a huge mistake if the crisis reduced the austerity we need to control inflation. I think the Fed raising interest rates is 10 times more important than geo-events. "

The Fed is widely expected to start raising interest rates next month, and traders seem to be divided on whether to raise rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. Siegel said that in order to control inflation, the Fed needs to take aggressive measures to raise interest rates outside the meeting.

"there is too much monetary growth and stimulus, and the Fed lags far behind the curve," Siegel said. "

One area where geo-events could have an impact on inflation is the energy market. While natural gas prices are usually excluded from core inflation indicators, higher oil prices tend to push up overall consumer prices.

Oil prices had been rising before geo-events, and many experts had called for oil prices to rise to $100. So it can only add fuel to the fire. "said Siegel. The Wharton professor added that he thought it was still possible for the Fed to control inflation without triggering a recession, but they needed to act quickly.

Fed officials launched a plan at their most recent meeting to prepare to raise interest rates and cut trillions of dollars of bonds on the central bank's balance sheet, according to minutes of the Fed meeting released on Wednesday.

Some officials at the meeting expressed concern about financial stability, saying loose monetary policy could pose significant risks. They say they may raise interest rates soon and that the unwinding of bond portfolios is likely to be significant.

The minutes said: "participants considered that a significant reduction in the size of the balance sheet might be appropriate given the high level of securities currently held by the Fed. "

Markets have been nervous over the past few weeks as soaring inflation and tough comments from some Fed officials, particularly Brad, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, have led traders to expect the Fed to raise interest rates seven times this year. 0.25 percentage points each time.

James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (St. Louis Federal Reserve), recently warned that inflation could become a more serious problem if the Fed does not act on interest rates.

"the risks we face now are greater than those faced by this generation in the past," he said. "one situation is that we can't predict it now, but we're going to have more inflation, and we need to make sure it doesn't happen. "

Brad, who recently called on the Fed to take aggressive action, has been advocating raising interest rates by a full percentage point by July to curb prices, which are rising at their fastest pace in 40 years.

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