The global market shocks triggered by the Russian-Ukrainian crisis continue. On February 22, Asian stock markets fell again. The A-share Prev index closed down 0.96%, the Shenzhen Composite Index closed down 1.29%, and the gem index closed down 1.38%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed down 2.69%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 1.89%, hitting a new low. Japan's Nikkei 225 index closed down 1.7%. In London, the FTSE 100 index opened down more than 1.4 per cent, and European and US stocks are also expected to fall 1 per cent to 2 per cent after the opening.

On February 21, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin unexpectedly declared the "Donetsk people's Republic" and the "Luhansk people's Republic" in eastern Ukraine as independent countries and authorized the deployment of troops to these two regions.

Russia's RTS index plunged 17 per cent yesterday, the biggest intraday drop since the global financial crisis in 2008. European stock markets, which have been weighed down by tensions between Russia and Ukraine in recent weeks, fell to their lowest level since October. U.S. stock markets were closed on Monday for Washington's birthday, with all three major stock index futures lower, with technology-dominated Nasdaq 100 index futures down nearly 2% at one point.

Song Seng Wun, an economist at CIMB Private Banking, said investors were most worried about the possibility of war and that the market was "a crimson ocean".

Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, the foreign exchange brokerage, wrote: "Wall Street will be driven by headlines and it seems that risk appetite will not fully recover until Russian troops withdraw from the border. "

However, from the reaction of global stock markets yesterday, we can see that the collapse occurred mainly in Russian stock markets, while stock markets in Europe, the United States and Asia fell relatively slightly.

Barron Weekly pointed out thatIn contrast, the Russian-Ukrainian crisis has had a more significant impact on commodities such as oil, and investors should be on guard against sharp fluctuations in commodity prices.In addition, as the Russian-Ukrainian crisis continues to ferment, EU countries have expressed their desire to get rid of their dependence on Russian energy. For investors, some investment targets will emerge in this process.

1、Is Russia more confident than ever in the face of sanctions?

Mr Biden spoke on the phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to "reaffirm the US commitment to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine", the White House said on February 21. Biden also signed an executive order to counter Russia's decision, and the United States will impose economic sanctions on Russia if it "invades" Ukraine.

The sanctions in the executive order include that no US personnel are allowed to invest in the "Donetsk people's Republic" and "Luhansk people's Republic", and that no goods and services from the region are allowed to be imported into the United States. goods and services from the United States are also prohibited from being exported to the region.

EU officials said Putin's decision was a "flagrant violation of international law and the Minsk agreement" and that the EU would respond with sanctions. On the evening of the 22nd, the EU announced a package of sanctions against Russia. The EU proposed that the sanctions should be targeted at banks that participate in the recognition of two republics in eastern Ukraine and provide funds for the Russian army. The EU's proposed sanctions are aimed at Russia's ability to access the EU market and plan to impose sanctions on three Russian banks.

Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank, said it was not clear whether Russia's move would lead to a full-blown conflict. "sanctions seem to be the first choice for the West at the moment," he said. "

In the face of the threat of sanctions, Mikhail Sheremet, a member of the Russian State Duma, said on February 22 that Russia has made all preparations to meet the development of the situation and that Russia will not be timid. He said: "Russia is not afraid of Western sanctions, we attach importance to the safety of people's lives rather than the economy. "

Hong Hao, managing director of BoCom International, believes that even if the United States and its allies impose sanctions on Russia, such as the conflict in Crimea in 2015, Russia today is no longer what it was then.Russia now has $630 billion in foreign reserves and has reduced its holdings of US debt over the past few years. Oil prices, which were around $40 then, are now trading at $100, while demand for Russian oil, gas and other commodities exports continues unabated.

Cui Hongjian, director of the European Institute of the Chinese Academy of International Studies, believes that the Ukrainian government has made it clear for the first time that it does not want to go to war, but the pressure will soon shift to internal affairs. For the United States and NATO, the change in the situation in eastern Ukraine will not become the trigger for war with Russia, but the United States will continue to strengthen military mobilization and deployment, especially to strengthen the defense of NATO allies such as Poland near Ukraine, thus further portraying Russia as an "aggressor" and a "rule breaker."

2、Commodities such as oil are the most affected.

Brent crude futures rose more than 4 per cent at one point to a high of $97 a barrel at a time when investors were avoiding risk. On February 22nd, Brent crude rose further to a seven-year high of $97.76 a barrel.

Russia is a big energy producer, producing about 9 million barrels of crude oil a day, compared with about 78 million barrels a day in the world. Benchmark international crude oil prices have risen about 20 per cent so far this year and have risen about 46 per cent over the past 23 months.

Jason Furman, an economist at Harvard, said: "Russia dominates the global oil and gas market and can be said to be a large gas station. "

In the event of a full-scale Russian invasion, Brent crude futures could soar to (at least) $130 and push up the price of West Texas Intermediate crude. It is hard to see Brent crude falling back below $90 a barrel any time soon. "

Barron Weekly points out that in addition to crude oil, other commodities affected include aluminium, natural gas and wheat.

Russia is also a huge producer and major exporter of aluminium, which is one of the reasons for the rise in commodity and aluminium-related stock prices due to recent geopolitical tensions. Aluminium prices have risen about 15 per cent since the start of the year. Russia produced about 3.7 million tons of aluminum in 2021, while global production was about 68 million tons, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Geological Survey.

Although European natural gas prices have fallen about 26 per cent so far this year, prices surged at the end of December and are still up about 125 per cent over the past six months, according to the World Bank. Russia will produce about 639 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2021, compared with about 3.854 trillion cubic meters worldwide, according to BP P.L.C..

Russia and Ukraine are both important wheat producers. Russia produces about 80 million tons of wheat each year, while Ukraine produces about 33 million tons. Global wheat production exceeds 775 million tons a year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Benchmark us wheat prices have risen about 3 per cent so far this year and have risen about 20 per cent over the past 12 months.

Barron Weekly pointed out that at a time when the Russian-Ukrainian crisis continues to ferment, investors should not only face the sharp fluctuations in the stock market, but also guard against the sharp fluctuations in some commodity prices.

3、Some energy companies will benefit from the "secession" of EU natural gas

The crisis in Russia and Ukraine will prompt the European Union to reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas, which currently accounts for 40% of the EU's total consumption. Barron Weekly believes that a series of companies will benefit in the process.

The easiest way to replace Russian natural gas is American liquefied natural gas$Cheniere Energy (LNG.US) $The United States has more underground natural gas reserves than domestic use, and LNG production surged 42% in the first half of 2021 compared with the same period last year.

In the European market, the proportion of natural gas produced in the United States is increasing. About 60 per cent of US LNG exports went to Europe in January 2022, up about 10 per cent from a year earlier, according to Kepler, a market research firm. If the EU "secession" makes progress, it will reduce the risk of energy security in Europe to a certain extent.

Randy Givens, head of energy research at Jefferies, says us LNG production is likely to grow by another 80 per cent over the next five years. LNG maker Cheniere Energy (LNG), which earns $100m in LNG per ship, is up 2/3 in the past year.

Jeffrey also pointed out that$GasLog Partners (GLOP.US) $和$Golar LNG (GLNG.US) $Infrastructure suppliers such as those are good choices for investors to participate in the natural gas bull market.

Leo Mariani, an oil and gas analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets, believes that at a time when the market is worried about crude oil supply,The crisis in Russia and Ukraine will stimulate oil investment.Mariani says this is good for some smaller oil producers, such as$SM Energy (SM.US) $和$Talos Energy (TALO.US) $。

The crisis in Russia and Ukraine has also brought opportunities to some European energy companies. The Dutch government has doubled the production of the Groningen field, which will last until 2026, which is good for the oil and gas field that has been developing since the 1960s.$Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.US) $和$Shell PLC (SHEL.US) $。

Norwegian energy Corp.$Equinor (EQNR.US)A more reliable investment, the company's natural gas production rose to record levels last quarter and has more capacity. Equinor Energy's share price has soared 40 per cent in the past six months.

For the foreseeable future, Europe will continue to rely on Russia for energy, especially Germany, which buys half of its natural gas from Russian gas companies.Gazprom (SIBN). "at present, Russia still has market influence in Europe," said Ben Cahill, a senior researcher on energy security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Center For Strategic and International Studies). "