Edited by Deloitte Research:The change of health care from "scale" to "value"
China's medical service market is huge and is rapidly expanding driven by factors such as an aging population, urbanization, wealth growth and comprehensive coverage of the basic medical security system. China's health consumption totaled 4.6 trillion yuan in 2016, maintaining a compound growth rate of 13.5% in the past three years.
Current situation and trend forecast of total health expenditure and GDP
By 2020, if estimated at 6.8% of GDP, the total health expenditure in China will exceed 6.5 trillion yuan, and the compound growth rate of health expenditure from 2016 to 2020 is expected to reach 8.8%. In developed countries, the total cost of health in the United States accounts for 17.2% of the total GDP, while the total cost of health in Japan accounts for 10.9% of the total GDP.
The trend of polarization of population structure deepens
On the one hand, the aging rate of China's population is accelerating.According to United Nations data, the number of people aged over 65 in China will exceed 150 million in 2018, accounting for 11 percent of the total population. It is estimated that by 2030, the number of people aged over 65 in China will exceed 240 million, accounting for 17.1 percent of China's total population and 1/4 of the world's elderly population.On the other hand, the two-child policy has been liberalized nationwide since 2016, and China's fertility rate has rebounded.In the next decade or so, the pyramid structure of China's population may become "wider and wider up and down, narrower and narrower in the middle", and because the average medical expenses for the elderly and children are much higher than the overall average level, it can be predicted that the change in the age of the population in the future will also lead to an increase in the growth of medical expenses in society as a whole.
Transformation from "medical service" to "health service" in the direction of medical service industry
Stimulated by the increase in the prevalence rate of senile and chronic diseases, the health management industry has great potential.In the decade from 2003 to 2013, the prevalence of chronic diseases such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer doubled from 12.33% to 24.52%.The number of deaths from chronic diseases accounts for 86.6% of the total deaths, and this number continues to increase.Aging can also stimulate outbreaks of diseases that occur only in old age, such as cataracts and Alzheimer's disease.By 2030, China will have more than 200 million senile cataract patients and more than 10 million senile dementia patients.
The industry potential of chronic disease management and health management is endless.
In a narrow sense, the industry chain of health management mainly refers to taking physical examination as the core.A collection of medical services or products extending forward and backward for the purpose of "preventing and mitigating" diseases. As the core part of the health management industry, the growth rate of the physical examination industry in recent years is very amazing.According to Dongxing Securities report, the size of the professional health examination market in 2015 was about 16.4 billion, accounting for about 15-17% of the overall health examination industry. It is expected to reach about 52 billion by 2020, with a compound growth rate of about 25 per cent.In this "sub-health era", it focuses on the contents of health examination, health and chronic disease management.It also includes disease prevention, health intervention and rehabilitation medicine.Health insuranceIt also plays a very important role in the whole health management industry chain.
The scale and quality of the industrial chain of maternal and child medical services are constantly improving.
Maternal and child medical services from a simple "antenatal examination-delivery" service to now cover all stages of maternal and infant services. It extends forward to pregnancy preparation, prenatal screening and other services, and backward to monthly centers, postpartum recovery and cosmetology, and neonatal related services. In addition, the thickness of the industrial chain is also increasing, and more and more differentiated services are derived. Such as assisted reproduction, mobile mother-child community, health and nutrition counseling and so on.
High-end maternal and child health services are becoming more and more acceptable. In addition, according to the Department of Fertility guidance of the Health and Family Planning Commission, 60% of the 90 million couples who meet the two-child policy are elderly women over the age of 35, who have relatively higher requirements for maternity services and spending power.
Consumer health care is concerned by capital.
Medical cosmetology.The volume of formal medical treatment in China accounts for about 10% of the global total, making it the third largest market in the world.The size of China's medical and beauty market is expected to maintain a growth rate of more than 20% in the next five years, and the size of China's medical and beauty market is expected to exceed 10 billion US dollars in 2017.
Old-age health care and real estate.In 2020, the number of beds for the aged in China should reach 35-40 per thousand people over 60 years old, and it is estimated that the total number of beds for the aged in China should reach 8.5 million-9.7 million in 2020. At present, China's pension housing is still in the primary stage, but no matter from the active market demand, the diversification of products and services and the maturity of the business model, there is no replicable project model and model of the market leader, there is still great potential for development in the future.
Medical travel.According to the data of Visa Inc's report, at present, 14 million people around the world choose to travel abroad. The global medical tourism market is about $45.5 billion to $72 billion, and is growing at an annual growth rate of about 25%.It has become the fastest growing segment in the tourism field.China's outbound medical tourism reached 500000 in 2016, an increase of 500 percent over 2015.The average price of medical travel orders is more than 50,000 yuan. The main items of outbound medical tourism for Chinese tourists include intensive care, overseas physical examination, reproductive assistance and medical cosmetology.
